Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1450
-520
+1450
-500
3.10
o2½-118
u2¾-129

TIME
HALF		0
2

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Vitoria
Nacional		50.2%
24.7%		25.1%
+109
+274
+110
+270
0
1		-1.36422-1.35662-1.39756
Santa Clara
Benfica		17.5%
66.9%		15.7%
+875
-294
+950
-320
1
2		-0.32548-0.32021-0.40266
Gil Vicente FC
Belenenses		33.4%
34.4%		32.2%
+178
+188
+190
+180
1
2		-1.09727-1.07537-1.06575
Sporting CP
Braga		35.2%
37.5%		27.3%
+165
+170
+165
+175
1
0		-1.01891-1.02210-1.04279
Pacos
Rio Ave		35.2%
34.4%		30.5%
+247
+129
+250
+125
1
1		-1.07210-1.07836-1.05684
Maritimo
Boavista		33.8%
35.0%		31.2%
+269
+126
+250
+120
1
0		-1.32844-1.29960-1.08412
Vitoria
Porto		18.6%
64.7%		16.7%
+791
-278
+750
-280
0
1		-0.34827-0.35472-0.43530
Benfica
Portimonense		68.3%
16.3%		15.4%
-219
+600
-220
+620
5
1		-0.42182-0.42454-0.38182
Famalicao
Gil Vicente FC		36.2%
35.4%		28.4%
+174
+166
+175
+170
3
0		-1.06854-1.06178-1.01719
Nacional
Tondela		32.2%
36.7%		31.1%
+244
+120
+260
+110
1
2		-0.82376-0.79308-1.00346
Belenenses
Sporting CP		13.9%
71.5%		14.6%
+810
-238
+775
-250
2
2		-1.31952-1.30232-1.15450
Boavista
Braga		15.9%
70.5%		13.6%
+575
-215
+600
-215
1
2		-0.42622-0.42846-0.34977
Rio Ave
Maritimo		36.4%
32.6%		31.0%
+182
+168
+180
+165
0
1		-1.03005-1.02521-1.12043
Moreirense
Santa Clara		34.0%
35.6%		30.4%
+385
-127
+400
-130
0
0		-1.12461-1.13966-1.05566
SC Farense
Pacos		23.3%
54.5%		22.2%
+185
+165
+190
+150
2
0		-1.08818-1.11145-1.45504
Porto
Nacional		75.7%
12.4%		11.9%
-474
+1276
-475
+1200
1
0		-0.24107-0.24095-0.27891
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).