Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Famalicao 		67.0%
14.3%		18.7%
-172
+430

2.25
0.93		3.18
o2¾-108
u2¾-110

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Maritimo
Pacos		26.5%
47.5%		26.0%
+232
+144
+230
+135
1
1		-1.08728-1.07404-1.03591
Tondela
Boavista		30.5%
39.4%		30.1%
+290
+105
+300
+100
1
1		-1.08126-1.09140-1.05916
Santa Clara
Famalicao		33.2%
39.2%		27.6%
+226
+130
+210
+135
0
1		-0.87827-0.90429-0.93621
Vitoria
SC Farense		52.6%
24.3%		23.1%
+229
+130
+230
+125
2
2		-1.04423-1.05171-1.02812
Porto
Benfica		42.8%
31.1%		26.1%
+195
+143
+195
+145
1
1		-1.02606-1.03790-1.00868
Portimonense
Belenenses		29.6%
38.6%		31.9%
+179
+234
+180
+220
0
1		-1.22721-1.21598-0.95295
Nacional
Moreirense		26.6%
46.1%		27.3%
+231
+129
+225
+130
2
2		-1.04937-1.05474-1.04895
Sporting CP
Rio Ave		55.3%
22.5%		22.2%
-133
+425
-130
+410
2
0		-0.60278-0.62044-0.59232
Pacos
Braga		22.7%
58.0%		19.4%
+625
-200
+640
-205
1
1		-1.22972-1.24928-1.01480
Gil Vicente FC
Maritimo		31.3%
38.7%		30.0%
+172
+194
+165
+200
1
0		-1.04523-1.02304-1.16027
Nacional
Sporting CP		13.8%
72.7%		13.5%
+1176
-312
+1200
-400
0
2		-0.28576-0.27273-0.31877
Rio Ave
Portimonense		42.3%
28.2%		29.4%
+210
+147
+220
+145
0
0		-1.05981-1.07700-1.06233
Boavista
Santa Clara		29.3%
41.8%		28.9%
+345
-110
+350
-115
3
3		-1.10264-1.11486-1.05018
SC Farense
Gil Vicente FC		29.7%
42.4%		27.9%
+195
+157
+195
+160
0
0		-1.05740-1.06884-1.03571
Famalicao
Porto		12.9%
77.8%		9.3%
+633
-246
+700
-250
2
3		-0.39955-0.38299-0.25147
Benfica
Tondela		66.9%
17.2%		15.9%
-345
+900
-350
+1000
2
0		-0.29697-0.30059-0.40212
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.46510 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.44669 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.88658
0.57852
0.56011

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).