Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Porto
Nacional		75.7%
12.4%		11.9%
-474
+1276
-475
+1200
1
0		-0.24107-0.24095-0.27891
Portimonense
Famalicao		27.3%
47.6%		25.1%
+225
+140
+235
+135
1
0		-1.21963-1.25956-1.29689
Braga
Rio Ave		54.1%
24.0%		21.9%
-140
+375
-130
+355
0
0		-1.09638-1.09322-1.02008
Gil Vicente FC
Benfica		15.8%
70.3%		13.9%
+1400
-455
+1500
-525
2
1		-2.74264-2.82195-1.84820
Maritimo
Belenenses		34.2%
33.3%		32.5%
+285
+116
+260
+125
0
2		-0.80948-0.85982-1.10081
Tondela
Moreirense		26.4%
46.7%		26.9%
+190
+152
+200
+150
3
2		-1.11654-1.14816-1.33237
Santa Clara
Vitoria		24.9%
50.7%		24.4%
+240
+133
+245
+125
0
1		-0.87098-0.86140-0.67871
Sporting CP
SC Farense		68.6%
16.5%		14.9%
-141
+454
-155
+450
1
0		-0.56708-0.54932-0.37685
Pacos
Boavista		43.2%
29.0%		27.8%
+225
+146
+210
+150
0
2		-0.93930-0.96551-1.23822
Famalicao
Sporting CP		17.2%
66.4%		16.4%
+575
-182
+600
-205
1
1		-1.21935-1.22066-1.08511
Belenenses
Braga		14.5%
68.2%		17.3%
+730
-259
+700
-250
1
1		-1.27677-1.25656-1.15795
Nacional
Santa Clara		28.3%
44.2%		27.4%
+431
-130
+410
-135
1
5		-0.60440-0.60150-0.81545
Moreirense
Gil Vicente FC		38.1%
34.2%		27.7%
+257
+119
+265
+115
2
1		-1.31423-1.34504-0.96532
Benfica
Pacos		51.6%
25.6%		22.8%
-213
+610
-225
+575
5
0		-0.42757-0.41746-0.66169
Porto
Tondela		72.5%
11.7%		15.8%
-303
+850
-290
+825
2
0		-0.32999-0.34667-0.32154
Rio Ave
Boavista		39.9%
31.8%		28.3%
+176
+186
+170
+180
3
3		-1.07628-1.06033-1.03238
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.21354 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.23274 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.24193
-0.02839
-0.00919

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).