Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Famalicao 		67.0%
14.3%		18.7%
-172
+430

2.25
0.93		3.18
o2¾-108
u2¾-110

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Moreirense
Vitoria		26.3%
48.4%		25.3%
+341
-114
+360
-120
0
2		-0.66785-0.65356-0.72656
Belenenses
Pacos		23.7%
50.8%		25.4%
+309
+117
+245
+120
0
1		-0.80024-0.84381-0.67645
Braga
Maritimo		60.6%
20.7%		18.6%
-160
+485
-160
+480
0
1		-1.80454-1.80758-1.57277
Portimonense
SC Farense		31.9%
38.2%		29.8%
+245
+138
+240
+125
1
1		-1.07596-1.06716-1.05162
Porto
Moreirense		67.9%
16.7%		15.4%
-440
+1335
-425
+1225
1
1		-1.47185-1.44806-1.08970
Tondela
Famalicao		28.5%
46.2%		25.3%
+385
-128
+375
-125
2
2		-1.11958-1.12346-1.01426
Vitoria
Nacional		50.2%
24.7%		25.1%
+109
+274
+110
+270
0
1		-1.36422-1.35662-1.39756
Santa Clara
Benfica		17.5%
66.9%		15.7%
+875
-294
+950
-320
1
2		-0.32548-0.32021-0.40266
Gil Vicente FC
Belenenses		33.4%
34.4%		32.2%
+178
+188
+190
+180
1
2		-1.09727-1.07537-1.06575
Sporting CP
Braga		35.2%
37.5%		27.3%
+165
+170
+165
+175
1
0		-1.01891-1.02210-1.04279
Pacos
Rio Ave		35.2%
34.4%		30.5%
+247
+129
+250
+125
1
1		-1.07210-1.07836-1.05684
Maritimo
Boavista		33.8%
35.0%		31.2%
+269
+126
+250
+120
1
0		-1.32844-1.29960-1.08412
Vitoria
Porto		18.6%
64.7%		16.7%
+791
-278
+750
-280
0
1		-0.34827-0.35472-0.43530
Benfica
Portimonense		68.3%
16.3%		15.4%
-219
+600
-220
+620
5
1		-0.42182-0.42454-0.38182
Famalicao
Gil Vicente FC		36.2%
35.4%		28.4%
+174
+166
+175
+170
3
0		-1.06854-1.06178-1.01719
Nacional
Tondela		32.2%
36.7%		31.1%
+244
+120
+260
+110
1
2		-0.82376-0.79308-1.00346
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.46510 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.44669 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.88658
0.57852
0.56011

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).