Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
SC Farense
Maritimo		29.2%
44.3%		26.5%
+145
+207
+160
+200
0
1		-1.17662-1.14863-0.81504
Vitoria
Portimonense		52.0%
23.4%		24.6%
+182
+160
+185
+160
0
3		-1.00687-1.01195-1.45355
Sporting CP
Moreirense		57.2%
21.8%		21.0%
-230
+800
-230
+800
1
1		-1.30752-1.32980-1.04000
Maritimo
Benfica		16.4%
68.8%		14.8%
+1700
-588
+1700
-675
0
1		-0.18455-0.18839-0.37410
Braga
SC Farense		67.7%
17.8%		14.5%
-130
+360
-145
+425
2
1		-0.61201-0.57235-0.38945
Pacos
Famalicao		39.6%
33.3%		27.0%
+197
+153
+200
+155
0
2		-0.97453-0.98305-1.09916
Tondela
Vitoria		20.8%
58.2%		21.0%
+375
-121
+440
-150
2
1		-1.58323-1.73693-1.56964
Boavista
Belenenses		32.4%
35.3%		32.3%
+215
+154
+195
+175
2
0		-1.19201-1.13392-1.12757
Santa Clara
Porto		12.5%
76.2%		11.3%
+1016
-338
+1100
-350
1
2		-0.30396-0.29990-0.27143
Gil Vicente FC
Rio Ave		27.7%
44.3%		28.1%
+234
+126
+240
+125
2
0		-1.25987-1.27357-1.28536
Portimonense
Nacional		30.4%
38.7%		31.0%
+164
+189
+160
+190
5
1		-1.01608-1.00622-1.19122
Benfica
Braga		35.2%
38.4%		26.5%
+101
+250
+115
+210
2
0		-0.74750-0.81507-0.48386
SC Farense
Boavista		30.4%
41.0%		28.6%
+255
+125
+220
+140
1
0		-1.31751-1.21362-0.52768
Famalicao
Maritimo		35.1%
36.5%		28.4%
+180
+170
+185
+175
4
0		-1.07169-1.09404-0.45479
Belenenses
Rio Ave		25.6%
46.0%		28.4%
+335
+100
+350
-105
0
0		-1.12790-1.13714-0.69628
Vitoria
Sporting CP		24.0%
53.7%		22.3%
+450
-150
+650
-195
0
1		-0.55483-0.46348-0.62153
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.21354 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.23274 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.24193
-0.02839
-0.00919

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).