Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Famalicao 		67.0%
14.3%		18.7%
-172
+430

2.25
0.93		3.18
o2¾-108
u2¾-110

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Belenenses
Sporting CP		13.9%
71.5%		14.6%
+810
-238
+775
-250
2
2		-1.31952-1.30232-1.15450
Boavista
Braga		15.9%
70.5%		13.6%
+575
-215
+600
-215
1
2		-0.42622-0.42846-0.34977
Rio Ave
Maritimo		36.4%
32.6%		31.0%
+182
+168
+180
+165
0
1		-1.03005-1.02521-1.12043
Moreirense
Santa Clara		34.0%
35.6%		30.4%
+385
-127
+400
-130
0
0		-1.12461-1.13966-1.05566
SC Farense
Pacos		23.3%
54.5%		22.2%
+185
+165
+190
+150
2
0		-1.08818-1.11145-1.45504
Porto
Nacional		75.7%
12.4%		11.9%
-474
+1276
-475
+1200
1
0		-0.24107-0.24095-0.27891
Portimonense
Famalicao		27.3%
47.6%		25.1%
+225
+140
+235
+135
1
0		-1.21963-1.25956-1.29689
Braga
Rio Ave		54.1%
24.0%		21.9%
-140
+375
-130
+355
0
0		-1.09638-1.09322-1.02008
Gil Vicente FC
Benfica		15.8%
70.3%		13.9%
+1400
-455
+1500
-525
2
1		-2.74264-2.82195-1.84820
Maritimo
Belenenses		34.2%
33.3%		32.5%
+285
+116
+260
+125
0
2		-0.80948-0.85982-1.10081
Tondela
Moreirense		26.4%
46.7%		26.9%
+190
+152
+200
+150
3
2		-1.11654-1.14816-1.33237
Santa Clara
Vitoria		24.9%
50.7%		24.4%
+240
+133
+245
+125
0
1		-0.87098-0.86140-0.67871
Sporting CP
SC Farense		68.6%
16.5%		14.9%
-141
+454
-155
+450
1
0		-0.56708-0.54932-0.37685
Pacos
Boavista		43.2%
29.0%		27.8%
+225
+146
+210
+150
0
2		-0.93930-0.96551-1.23822
Famalicao
Sporting CP		17.2%
66.4%		16.4%
+575
-182
+600
-205
1
1		-1.21935-1.22066-1.08511
Belenenses
Braga		14.5%
68.2%		17.3%
+730
-259
+700
-250
1
1		-1.27677-1.25656-1.15795
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.46510 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.44669 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.88658
0.57852
0.56011

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).