Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Porto
Portimonense		77.2%
11.6%		11.2%
-222
+700
-235
+725
2
1		-0.41078-0.40088-0.12295
Moreirense
Pacos		29.4%
43.2%		27.4%
+370
-115
+360
-120
0
3		-0.66499-0.65356-0.83868
Tondela
Santa Clara		27.7%
44.2%		28.1%
+418
-120
+400
-120
1
1		-1.15843-1.15514-0.69998
Nacional
Gil Vicente FC		30.0%
40.3%		29.7%
+280
+107
+310
+100
0
2		-0.78373-0.74345-0.90949
Braga
Famalicao		59.6%
22.7%		17.7%
-179
+534
-190
+530
2
2		-1.02292-1.02741-0.80484
Pacos
Porto		16.0%
69.7%		14.3%
+915
-263
+750
-260
0
2		-0.34699-0.37459-0.20695
Gil Vicente FC
Vitoria		22.9%
54.4%		22.7%
+310
-101
+325
-105
4
2		-0.65958-0.66859-1.21709
Rio Ave
Moreirense		33.2%
36.3%		30.5%
+144
+224
+135
+220
1
1		-0.78372-0.78276-0.69410
Sporting CP
Tondela		66.9%
16.8%		16.3%
-270
+801
-275
+825
1
0		-0.11183-0.10844-0.22361
Boavista
Benfica		15.1%
71.3%		13.6%
+900
-335
+975
-375
0
2		-0.30005-0.28438-0.19230
Portimonense
Santa Clara		26.6%
45.6%		27.8%
+230
+152
+220
+150
0
2		-0.96459-0.96648-0.46028
Belenenses
SC Farense		33.2%
35.4%		31.3%
+227
+152
+225
+155
1
0		-0.47268-0.46718-0.72565
Maritimo
Nacional		35.2%
33.3%		31.5%
+166
+197
+160
+200
2
1		-0.39195-0.38136-0.66651
Vitoria
Braga		25.6%
52.4%		22.1%
+450
-160
+475
-175
0
3		-0.25886-0.24160-0.39757
Benfica
Belenenses		65.0%
17.5%		17.5%
-270
+825
-260
+800
3
0		-0.13815-0.14310-0.23803
SC Farense
Rio Ave		25.2%
49.5%		25.3%
+329
-106
+330
-105
0
2		-0.37363-0.37434-0.41155
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.21354 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.23274 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.24193
-0.02839
-0.00919

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).