Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Famalicao 		67.0%
14.3%		18.7%
-172
+430

2.25
0.93		3.18
o2¾-108
u2¾-110

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nacional
Santa Clara		28.3%
44.2%		27.4%
+431
-130
+410
-135
1
5		-0.60440-0.60150-0.81545
Moreirense
Gil Vicente FC		38.1%
34.2%		27.7%
+257
+119
+265
+115
2
1		-1.31423-1.34504-0.96532
Benfica
Pacos		51.6%
25.6%		22.8%
-213
+610
-225
+575
5
0		-0.42757-0.41746-0.66169
Porto
Tondela		72.5%
11.7%		15.8%
-303
+850
-290
+825
2
0		-0.32999-0.34667-0.32154
Rio Ave
Boavista		39.9%
31.8%		28.3%
+176
+186
+170
+180
3
3		-1.07628-1.06033-1.03238
SC Farense
Maritimo		29.2%
44.3%		26.5%
+145
+207
+160
+200
0
1		-1.17662-1.14863-0.81504
Vitoria
Portimonense		52.0%
23.4%		24.6%
+182
+160
+185
+160
0
3		-1.00687-1.01195-1.45355
Sporting CP
Moreirense		57.2%
21.8%		21.0%
-230
+800
-230
+800
1
1		-1.30752-1.32980-1.04000
Maritimo
Benfica		16.4%
68.8%		14.8%
+1700
-588
+1700
-675
0
1		-0.18455-0.18839-0.37410
Braga
SC Farense		67.7%
17.8%		14.5%
-130
+360
-145
+425
2
1		-0.61201-0.57235-0.38945
Pacos
Famalicao		39.6%
33.3%		27.0%
+197
+153
+200
+155
0
2		-0.97453-0.98305-1.09916
Tondela
Vitoria		20.8%
58.2%		21.0%
+375
-121
+440
-150
2
1		-1.58323-1.73693-1.56964
Boavista
Belenenses		32.4%
35.3%		32.3%
+215
+154
+195
+175
2
0		-1.19201-1.13392-1.12757
Santa Clara
Porto		12.5%
76.2%		11.3%
+1016
-338
+1100
-350
1
2		-0.30396-0.29990-0.27143
Gil Vicente FC
Rio Ave		27.7%
44.3%		28.1%
+234
+126
+240
+125
2
0		-1.25987-1.27357-1.28536
Portimonense
Nacional		30.4%
38.7%		31.0%
+164
+189
+160
+190
5
1		-1.01608-1.00622-1.19122
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.46510 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.44669 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.88658
0.57852
0.56011

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).