Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Famalicao 		67.0%
14.3%		18.7%
-172
+430

2.25
0.93		3.18
o2¾-108
u2¾-110

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Benfica
Braga		35.2%
38.4%		26.5%
+101
+250
+115
+210
2
0		-0.74750-0.81507-0.48386
SC Farense
Boavista		30.4%
41.0%		28.6%
+255
+125
+220
+140
1
0		-1.31751-1.21362-0.52768
Famalicao
Maritimo		35.1%
36.5%		28.4%
+180
+170
+185
+175
4
0		-1.07169-1.09404-0.45479
Belenenses
Rio Ave		25.6%
46.0%		28.4%
+335
+100
+350
-105
0
0		-1.12790-1.13714-0.69628
Vitoria
Sporting CP		24.0%
53.7%		22.3%
+450
-150
+650
-195
0
1		-0.55483-0.46348-0.62153
Porto
Portimonense		77.2%
11.6%		11.2%
-222
+700
-235
+725
2
1		-0.41078-0.40088-0.12295
Moreirense
Pacos		29.4%
43.2%		27.4%
+370
-115
+360
-120
0
3		-0.66499-0.65356-0.83868
Tondela
Santa Clara		27.7%
44.2%		28.1%
+418
-120
+400
-120
1
1		-1.15843-1.15514-0.69998
Nacional
Gil Vicente FC		30.0%
40.3%		29.7%
+280
+107
+310
+100
0
2		-0.78373-0.74345-0.90949
Braga
Famalicao		59.6%
22.7%		17.7%
-179
+534
-190
+530
2
2		-1.02292-1.02741-0.80484
Pacos
Porto		16.0%
69.7%		14.3%
+915
-263
+750
-260
0
2		-0.34699-0.37459-0.20695
Gil Vicente FC
Vitoria		22.9%
54.4%		22.7%
+310
-101
+325
-105
4
2		-0.65958-0.66859-1.21709
Rio Ave
Moreirense		33.2%
36.3%		30.5%
+144
+224
+135
+220
1
1		-0.78372-0.78276-0.69410
Sporting CP
Tondela		66.9%
16.8%		16.3%
-270
+801
-275
+825
1
0		-0.11183-0.10844-0.22361
Boavista
Benfica		15.1%
71.3%		13.6%
+900
-335
+975
-375
0
2		-0.30005-0.28438-0.19230
Portimonense
Santa Clara		26.6%
45.6%		27.8%
+230
+152
+220
+150
0
2		-0.96459-0.96648-0.46028
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.46510 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.44669 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.88658
0.57852
0.56011

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).