Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 15, 2025

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Games for Apr 16, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Braga
Sporting CP
30.5%
43.3%
26.2%
+700
-275
+750
-280
1
1
-1.62475-1.67857-1.33899
Boavista
Rio Ave
23.2%
48.8%
27.9%
+275
+106
+310
-110
2
0
-1.36285-1.46305-1.45964
Benfica
Porto
21.8%
54.4%
23.8%
+120
+225
+130
+220
4
1
-0.83924-0.88201-1.52450
Moreirense
Gil Vicente FC
37.6%
32.3%
30.1%
+220
+151
+235
+150
1
0
-1.21076-1.25716-0.97883
Santa Clara
Vitoria
19.8%
55.3%
24.9%
+340
+100
+350
+100
0
2
-0.75305-0.74202-0.59283
SC Farense
Benfica
7.0%
79.4%
13.6%
+1500
-675
+1700
-725
2
3
-0.19497-0.17860-0.23011
Gil Vicente FC
Boavista
32.4%
37.0%
30.7%
+144
+225
+140
+225
3
1
-0.94161-0.92637-1.12803
Vitoria
Moreirense
43.7%
28.1%
28.1%
+122
+255
+110
+280
2
2
-1.18469-1.21372-1.26798
Nacional
Santa Clara
24.8%
46.5%
28.6%
+370
-120
+445
-135
0
1
-0.65716-0.60508-0.76477
Benfica
Gil Vicente FC
69.0%
12.1%
18.9%
-290
+750
-260
+725
3
0
-0.36152-0.37589-0.37154
Boavista
Moreirense
24.6%
47.4%
28.0%
+440
-140
+400
-130
0
1
-0.60387-0.62021-0.74676
Benfica
Rio Ave
60.4%
16.9%
22.7%
-345
+840
-350
+900
3
2
-0.31006-0.29888-0.50397
Famalicao
Sporting CP
10.1%
73.9%
16.0%
+800
-325
+1000
-325
1
3
-0.32748-0.31866-0.30213
Santa Clara
Gil Vicente FC
34.6%
34.5%
30.8%
+193
+170
+180
+180
1
0
-1.14034-1.07614-1.06007
Braga
SC Farense
73.4%
10.3%
16.4%
+102
+290
+100
+310
1
0
-0.74767-0.74345-0.30937
Rio Ave
Famalicao
35.7%
35.6%
28.7%
+320
+101
+390
-115
0
1
-0.74053-0.67590-1.03218
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).