Sweden Allsvenskan Predictions

Updated 2 hr ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
11/29/2021 06:00 PM	Hacken Sirius	47.6% 28.5%	23.9%	+173 +146 +170 +155	0 3	-0.94163-0.98714	-1.25509
11/29/2021 06:00 PM	AIK Stockholm Elfsborg	30.7% 44.2%	25.0%	+205 +142 +205 +140	4 2	-1.15141-1.16603	-1.17951
11/28/2021 02:00 PM	Ostersund Göteborg	24.5% 52.2%	23.3%	+1213 -417 +1150 -425	0 4	-0.25089-0.26338	-0.64913
11/21/2021 04:30 PM	Göteborg Sirius	39.0% 35.7%	25.2%	+170 +185 +150 +195	3 3	-1.24109-1.21335	-1.37733
11/07/2021 02:00 PM	Ostersund AIK Stockholm	21.3% 56.6%	22.2%	+1700 -600 +2000 -700	0 3	-0.19584-0.18311	-0.56941
10/27/2021 05:00 PM	Hacken Ostersund	54.6% 22.6%	22.8%	-180 +470 -190 +460	1 1	-1.54384-1.57591	-1.47964
10/27/2021 05:00 PM	Hammarby Sirius	49.4% 29.3%	21.3%	-135 +340 -155 +360	1 0	-0.59014-0.54901	-0.70437
10/24/2021 01:00 PM	Ostersund Hammarby	19.4% 63.9%	16.8%	+1700 -625 +1350 -550	3 4	-0.18723-0.21875	-0.44840
10/24/2021 01:00 PM	Sirius Elfsborg	24.4% 55.5%	20.1%	+710 -259 +625 -250	0 3	-0.36667-0.38737	-0.58853
10/17/2021 01:00 PM	AIK Stockholm Hammarby	31.3% 45.0%	23.7%	+192 +155 +175 +150	0 1	-0.96192-0.96840	-0.79773
10/03/2021 01:00 PM	Sirius Kalmar	39.3% 35.1%	25.6%	+420 -145 +450 -160	1 3	-0.56365-0.54089	-1.04574
10/01/2021 05:00 PM	Göteborg Elfsborg	27.5% 49.3%	23.2%	+490 -174 +495 -180	0 1	-0.49581-0.48970	-0.70710
09/27/2021 05:00 PM	Kalmar Göteborg	25.9% 49.6%	24.5%	+161 +185 +160 +190	2 0	-0.99398-1.00622	-1.35070
09/26/2021 03:30 PM	Hammarby Hacken	35.2% 40.4%	24.4%	+145 +179 +145 +180	1 1	-1.34450-1.30254	-1.41243
09/23/2021 05:00 PM	Göteborg Hammarby	28.0% 50.2%	21.9%	+375 -152 +380 -160	0 3	-0.54822-0.54025	-0.68965
09/23/2021 05:00 PM	AIK Stockholm Kalmar	47.5% 26.9%	25.6%	+140 +220 +135 +230	1 1	-1.20614-1.18130	-1.36215

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	2	1-0-1 (0.750)	0	-1.16980
Sportsbooks	2	0-0-1 (0.750)	2
DRatings	2	0-1-1 (0.250)	0	-1.59703	-0.42724

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 07/06/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Norrkoping (5-0-1, 16 pts)	5.0	0.0	1.0	16.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Sirius (3-1-2, 11 pts)	3.0	1.0	2.0	11.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
3	Varberg (3-2-1, 10 pts)	3.0	2.0	1.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
4	Hacken (2-0-4, 10 pts)	2.0	0.0	4.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Elfsborg (2-0-4, 10 pts)	2.0	0.0	4.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Mjallby (3-2-1, 10 pts)	3.0	2.0	1.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Malmo (2-1-3, 9 pts)	2.0	1.0	3.0	9.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	AIK Stockholm (2-2-2, 8 pts)	2.0	2.0	2.0	8.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Göteborg (2-2-2, 8 pts)	2.0	2.0	2.0	8.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Djurgarden (2-3-1, 7 pts)	2.0	3.0	1.0	7.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Hammarby (2-3-1, 7 pts)	2.0	3.0	1.0	7.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Kalmar (2-4-0, 6 pts)	2.0	4.0	0.0	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Orebro (1-2-3, 6 pts)	1.0	2.0	3.0	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Falkenberg (1-3-2, 5 pts)	1.0	3.0	2.0	5.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Ostersund (1-4-1, 4 pts)	1.0	4.0	1.0	4.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
16	Helsingborg (0-4-2, 2 pts)	0.0	4.0	2.0	2.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Swedish Allsvenskan season typically runs from the beginning to April to the beginning of November. Each of the sixteen teams play a home-and-home with every other team in the Allsvenskan to play thirty games total for the season. The bottom two teams get relegated and the third to the bottom placed team plays in a two leg match against the 3rd placed Superettan team to see who qualifies for the Allsvenskan.