Sweden Allsvenskan Predictions

Updated 5 days ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
10/01/2023 03:30 PM	Göteborg Hammarby	22.6% 54.7%	22.7%	+344 -110 +335 -115	1 1	-1.29722-1.30203	-1.48298
10/01/2023 01:00 PM	AIK Stockholm Hacken	27.1% 44.7%	28.2%	+283 -110 +275 -110	0 2	-0.68399-0.69563	-0.80410
09/17/2023 03:30 PM	Kalmar Elfsborg	13.6% 67.0%	19.5%	+600 -210 +540 -210	3 0	-1.98989-1.90609	-1.99797
09/03/2023 01:00 PM	AIK Stockholm Hammarby	27.5% 47.4%	25.0%	+215 +130 +210 +130	2 4	-0.87822-0.88312	-0.74615
08/27/2023 03:30 PM	Hacken Göteborg	42.8% 29.0%	28.2%	+102 +240 +105 +240	2 4	-1.27150-1.27465	-1.23919
08/20/2023 03:30 PM	Hammarby Kalmar	60.3% 18.5%	21.2%	+160 +184 +145 +190	0 0	-1.21120-1.25917	-1.55211
08/20/2023 01:00 PM	Sirius Hacken	18.0% 59.8%	22.2%	+475 -200 +465 -200	2 3	-0.44915-0.45615	-0.51380
08/13/2023 03:30 PM	Elfsborg Hammarby	33.3% 41.7%	25.0%	+124 +220 +125 +210	0 1	-1.21160-1.17896	-0.87349
08/13/2023 01:00 PM	Kalmar Sirius	26.2% 48.0%	25.8%	+245 +118 +230 +120	0 3	-0.81461-0.83884	-0.73493
08/06/2023 01:00 PM	Sirius Elfsborg	17.7% 61.5%	20.7%	+750 -315 +715 -290	0 1	-0.31814-0.34485	-0.48558
08/06/2023 01:00 PM	AIK Stockholm Kalmar	51.0% 22.5%	26.5%	+140 +215 +145 +200	1 1	-1.20875-1.22670	-1.32738
07/31/2023 05:00 PM	AIK Stockholm Sirius	44.8% 28.5%	26.6%	+115 +242 +130 +210	1 0	-0.80392-0.88312	-0.80216
07/30/2023 03:30 PM	Kalmar Göteborg	21.0% 53.9%	25.1%	+245 +125 +255 +120	0 2	-0.85951-0.83605	-0.61873
07/29/2023 01:00 PM	Elfsborg Hacken	32.6% 39.8%	27.6%	+182 +130 +160 +145	1 3	-0.88088-0.94729	-0.92153
07/16/2023 01:00 PM	Kalmar Hammarby	13.4% 68.4%	18.1%	+425 -145 +380 -140	1 3	-0.56572-0.58913	-0.37913
07/16/2023 01:00 PM	Göteborg Elfsborg	22.5% 53.5%	24.0%	+760 -285 +725 -280	1 1	-1.68848-1.68989	-1.42703

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 07/06/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Norrkoping (5-0-1, 16 pts)	5.0	0.0	1.0	16.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Sirius (3-1-2, 11 pts)	3.0	1.0	2.0	11.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
3	Varberg (3-2-1, 10 pts)	3.0	2.0	1.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
4	Hacken (2-0-4, 10 pts)	2.0	0.0	4.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Elfsborg (2-0-4, 10 pts)	2.0	0.0	4.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Mjallby (3-2-1, 10 pts)	3.0	2.0	1.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Malmo (2-1-3, 9 pts)	2.0	1.0	3.0	9.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	AIK Stockholm (2-2-2, 8 pts)	2.0	2.0	2.0	8.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Göteborg (2-2-2, 8 pts)	2.0	2.0	2.0	8.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Djurgarden (2-3-1, 7 pts)	2.0	3.0	1.0	7.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Hammarby (2-3-1, 7 pts)	2.0	3.0	1.0	7.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Kalmar (2-4-0, 6 pts)	2.0	4.0	0.0	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Orebro (1-2-3, 6 pts)	1.0	2.0	3.0	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Falkenberg (1-3-2, 5 pts)	1.0	3.0	2.0	5.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Ostersund (1-4-1, 4 pts)	1.0	4.0	1.0	4.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
16	Helsingborg (0-4-2, 2 pts)	0.0	4.0	2.0	2.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Swedish Allsvenskan season typically runs from the beginning to April to the beginning of November. Each of the sixteen teams play a home-and-home with every other team in the Allsvenskan to play thirty games total for the season. The bottom two teams get relegated and the third to the bottom placed team plays in a two leg match against the 3rd placed Superettan team to see who qualifies for the Allsvenskan.