Sweden Allsvenskan Predictions

Updated 6 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/21/2024 02:30 PM	Hammarby Hacken	33.1% 40.6%	26.2%	+292 -115 +290 -120	1 2	-0.66491-0.65670	-0.90054
04/15/2024 05:10 PM	Elfsborg Hammarby	33.3% 41.7%	25.0%	+182 +150 +180 +150	0 3	-0.96388-0.96627	-0.87349
04/14/2024 12:00 PM	Göteborg Kalmar	45.1% 27.3%	27.6%	+190 +153 +185 +150	1 0	-1.11319-1.09982	-0.79618
04/08/2024 05:00 PM	Sirius Kalmar	39.0% 33.2%	27.8%	+190 +147 +190 +145	2 1	-1.11179-1.11920	-0.94135
11/06/2023 06:10 PM	AIK Stockholm Göteborg	37.0% 33.5%	29.5%	+240 +135 +235 +135	1 1	-1.15706-1.16575	-1.22000
10/30/2023 06:10 PM	Elfsborg Göteborg	44.4% 29.2%	26.4%	+135 +243 +125 +220	2 1	-0.85240-0.86074	-0.81141
10/30/2023 06:00 PM	Sirius Hammarby	17.7% 62.7%	19.6%	+319 +107 +285 -115	2 2	-1.34831-1.41075	-1.63179
10/23/2023 05:10 PM	AIK Stockholm Elfsborg	27.2% 46.3%	26.4%	+353 -118 +335 -125	0 3	-0.64211-0.63858	-0.76910
10/08/2023 03:30 PM	Hacken Hammarby	32.5% 41.3%	26.2%	+162 +165 +150 +165	2 2	-1.34316-1.34481	-1.33956
10/07/2023 03:30 PM	Sirius Göteborg	26.8% 47.7%	25.5%	+296 +103 +250 +105	1 0	-1.40271-1.30280	-1.31587
10/01/2023 03:30 PM	Göteborg Hammarby	22.6% 54.7%	22.7%	+344 -110 +335 -115	1 1	-1.29722-1.30203	-1.48298
10/01/2023 01:00 PM	AIK Stockholm Hacken	27.1% 44.7%	28.2%	+283 -110 +275 -110	0 2	-0.68399-0.69563	-0.80410
09/17/2023 03:30 PM	Kalmar Elfsborg	13.6% 67.0%	19.5%	+600 -210 +540 -210	3 0	-1.98989-1.90609	-1.99797
09/03/2023 01:00 PM	AIK Stockholm Hammarby	27.5% 47.4%	25.0%	+215 +130 +210 +130	2 4	-0.87822-0.88312	-0.74615
08/27/2023 03:30 PM	Hacken Göteborg	42.8% 29.0%	28.2%	+102 +240 +105 +240	2 4	-1.27150-1.27465	-1.23919
08/20/2023 03:30 PM	Hammarby Kalmar	60.3% 18.5%	21.2%	+160 +184 +145 +190	0 0	-1.21120-1.25917	-1.55211

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 07/06/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Norrkoping (5-0-1, 16 pts)	5.0	0.0	1.0	16.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Sirius (3-1-2, 11 pts)	3.0	1.0	2.0	11.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
3	Varberg (3-2-1, 10 pts)	3.0	2.0	1.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
4	Hacken (2-0-4, 10 pts)	2.0	0.0	4.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Elfsborg (2-0-4, 10 pts)	2.0	0.0	4.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Mjallby (3-2-1, 10 pts)	3.0	2.0	1.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Malmo (2-1-3, 9 pts)	2.0	1.0	3.0	9.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	AIK Stockholm (2-2-2, 8 pts)	2.0	2.0	2.0	8.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Göteborg (2-2-2, 8 pts)	2.0	2.0	2.0	8.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Djurgarden (2-3-1, 7 pts)	2.0	3.0	1.0	7.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Hammarby (2-3-1, 7 pts)	2.0	3.0	1.0	7.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Kalmar (2-4-0, 6 pts)	2.0	4.0	0.0	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Orebro (1-2-3, 6 pts)	1.0	2.0	3.0	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Falkenberg (1-3-2, 5 pts)	1.0	3.0	2.0	5.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Ostersund (1-4-1, 4 pts)	1.0	4.0	1.0	4.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
16	Helsingborg (0-4-2, 2 pts)	0.0	4.0	2.0	2.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Swedish Allsvenskan season typically runs from the beginning to April to the beginning of November. Each of the sixteen teams play a home-and-home with every other team in the Allsvenskan to play thirty games total for the season. The bottom two teams get relegated and the third to the bottom placed team plays in a two leg match against the 3rd placed Superettan team to see who qualifies for the Allsvenskan.