Sweden Allsvenskan Predictions

Updated 6 days ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
10/20/2022 05:00 PM	Sirius Hammarby	17.7% 62.7%	19.6%	+1434 -485 +1200 -450	1 1	-2.00671-1.89972	-1.63179
10/19/2022 05:00 PM	Hacken AIK Stockholm	36.3% 33.7%	30.0%	+178 +156 +165 +150	2 1	-1.04001-1.02460	-1.01401
10/09/2022 01:00 PM	Kalmar Elfsborg	13.6% 67.0%	19.5%	+350 -111 +340 -130	2 0	-1.50878-1.53252	-1.99797
10/03/2022 05:10 PM	Elfsborg Göteborg	44.4% 29.2%	26.4%	+132 +207 +130 +200	3 1	-0.86895-0.88150	-0.81141
10/02/2022 03:30 PM	AIK Stockholm Sirius	44.8% 28.5%	26.6%	+125 +235 +110 +235	1 1	-1.30144-1.33211	-1.32246
09/18/2022 01:00 PM	Sirius Elfsborg	17.7% 61.5%	20.7%	+550 -201 +510 -205	0 3	-0.43041-0.44937	-0.48558
09/17/2022 01:00 PM	Hammarby Hacken	33.1% 40.6%	26.2%	+195 +137 +190 +130	1 1	-1.36270-1.35701	-1.33811
09/12/2022 05:00 PM	Hacken Kalmar	56.8% 18.7%	24.5%	+163 +172 +155 +175	1 1	-1.31030-1.27247	-1.40801
08/28/2022 01:00 PM	Sirius Göteborg	26.8% 47.7%	25.5%	+340 -107 +335 -120	0 2	-0.67280-0.65427	-0.74055
08/28/2022 01:00 PM	Hammarby AIK Stockholm	38.3% 34.9%	26.8%	+148 +197 +130 +195	2 2	-1.28833-1.33120	-1.31647
08/22/2022 05:00 PM	Hacken Sirius	51.0% 24.0%	25.0%	-121 +326 -135 +320	1 0	-0.61184-0.60373	-0.67278
08/22/2022 05:00 PM	Göteborg Kalmar	45.1% 27.3%	27.6%	+270 +118 +280 +105	0 1	-0.79553-0.76613	-1.29964
08/15/2022 05:10 PM	Hammarby Göteborg	45.4% 29.6%	25.0%	-113 +320 -120 +315	1 0	-0.65861-0.65786	-0.79019
08/07/2022 01:00 PM	AIK Stockholm Kalmar	51.0% 22.5%	26.5%	+196 +165 +185 +155	0 1	-0.99352-0.98556	-1.49197
07/31/2022 01:00 PM	Hacken Elfsborg	32.0% 40.4%	27.6%	+221 +115 +200 +110	4 4	-1.45878-1.47238	-1.28739
07/24/2022 03:30 PM	Elfsborg Kalmar	59.0% 18.5%	22.5%	+228 +131 +225 +120	0 1	-0.85654-0.83924	-1.68740

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 07/06/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Norrkoping (5-0-1, 16 pts)	5.0	0.0	1.0	16.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Sirius (3-1-2, 11 pts)	3.0	1.0	2.0	11.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
3	Varberg (3-2-1, 10 pts)	3.0	2.0	1.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
4	Hacken (2-0-4, 10 pts)	2.0	0.0	4.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Elfsborg (2-0-4, 10 pts)	2.0	0.0	4.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Mjallby (3-2-1, 10 pts)	3.0	2.0	1.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Malmo (2-1-3, 9 pts)	2.0	1.0	3.0	9.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	AIK Stockholm (2-2-2, 8 pts)	2.0	2.0	2.0	8.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Göteborg (2-2-2, 8 pts)	2.0	2.0	2.0	8.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Djurgarden (2-3-1, 7 pts)	2.0	3.0	1.0	7.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Hammarby (2-3-1, 7 pts)	2.0	3.0	1.0	7.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Kalmar (2-4-0, 6 pts)	2.0	4.0	0.0	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Orebro (1-2-3, 6 pts)	1.0	2.0	3.0	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Falkenberg (1-3-2, 5 pts)	1.0	3.0	2.0	5.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Ostersund (1-4-1, 4 pts)	1.0	4.0	1.0	4.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
16	Helsingborg (0-4-2, 2 pts)	0.0	4.0	2.0	2.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Swedish Allsvenskan season typically runs from the beginning to April to the beginning of November. Each of the sixteen teams play a home-and-home with every other team in the Allsvenskan to play thirty games total for the season. The bottom two teams get relegated and the third to the bottom placed team plays in a two leg match against the 3rd placed Superettan team to see who qualifies for the Allsvenskan.