Turkey Super Lig Predictions

Updated 4 hr ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
10/01/2021 05:00 PM	Trabzonspor Karagumruk	39.3% 36.1%	24.6%	+167 +163 +160 +170	1 3	-1.00509-1.04120	-1.01957
09/27/2021 05:00 PM	Alanyaspor Trabzonspor	36.3% 38.8%	25.0%	+380 -133 +380 -130	1 1	-1.38818-1.33097	-1.38810
09/27/2021 05:00 PM	Konyaspor Kasımpaşa	36.2% 38.7%	25.1%	+165 +170 +170 +170	2 2	-1.24344-1.22595	-1.38210
09/26/2021 04:00 PM	Goztepe Galatasaray	20.8% 59.6%	19.6%	+450 -185 +500 -200	1 2	-0.48823-0.45495	-0.51785
09/26/2021 01:00 PM	Rizespor Trabzonspor	21.4% 59.5%	19.1%	+435 -161 +450 -150	0 3	-0.53491-0.56161	-0.51945
09/26/2021 01:00 PM	Fenerbahce Hatayspor	35.3% 41.1%	23.6%	+158 +175 +135 +195	2 1	-0.97864-0.90736	-1.04038
09/25/2021 01:00 PM	Yeni Malatyaspor Antalyaspor	33.3% 41.1%	25.6%	+294 -105 +315 -105	0 1	-0.70467-0.71943	-0.88865
09/25/2021 10:30 AM	Karagumruk Sivasspor	37.7% 37.0%	25.3%	+265 +105 +265 +110	0 4	-0.76503-0.79376	-0.99433
09/23/2021 05:00 PM	Kasımpaşa Alanyaspor	21.2% 60.3%	18.5%	+325 -115 +330 -115	0 2	-0.66890-0.67749	-0.50536
09/23/2021 02:00 PM	Trabzonspor Konyaspor	49.1% 27.5%	23.4%	+130 +217 +125 +230	2 2	-1.23932-1.24316	-1.45261
09/22/2021 05:00 PM	Galatasaray Kayserispor	61.6% 19.0%	19.4%	-110 +295 -120 +320	0 3	-1.41576-1.48408	-1.66010
09/22/2021 05:00 PM	Hatayspor Goztepe	48.0% 29.2%	22.7%	+200 +130 +210 +130	2 0	-1.15027-1.18159	-0.73322
09/22/2021 02:00 PM	Trabzonspor Gaziantep FK	40.0% 35.6%	24.4%	+173 +170 +165 +180	0 1	-1.05082-1.08028	-1.03162
09/21/2021 05:00 PM	Sivasspor Yeni Malatyaspor	39.8% 34.6%	25.7%	+157 +175 +165 +180	1 0	-0.99474-1.02521	-0.92218
09/21/2021 02:00 PM	Antalyaspor Karagumruk	28.1% 48.5%	23.4%	+295 -115 +330 -120	0 0	-1.38494-1.34542	-1.45132
09/19/2021 04:00 PM	Kayserispor Hatayspor	18.8% 63.7%	17.5%	+355 -128 +375 -145	1 2	-0.61678-0.57556	-0.45144

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	2	1-1-0 (0.500)	0	-0.63088
Sportsbooks	2	1-1-0 (0.500)	0	-0.66865
DRatings	2	2-0-0 (1.000)	0	-0.46658	0.16430 0.20207

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 07/06/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Basaksehir (19-3-9, 66 pts)	21.2	3.3	9.5	73.2	82.3%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Trabzonspor (17-3-10, 61 pts)	19.6	3.6	10.8	69.7	17.7%	99.3%	0.7%	0.0%
3	Sivasspor (15-6-9, 54 pts)	17.0	6.9	10.1	61.2	0.0%	0.7%	87.8%	0.0%
4	Galatasaray (14-6-10, 52 pts)	16.3	6.8	11.0	59.8	0.0%	0.0%	79.7%	0.0%
5	Fenerbahce (14-9-8, 50 pts)	15.0	10.1	8.9	54.0	0.0%	0.0%	4.5%	0.0%
6	Besiktas (15-10-5, 50 pts)	16.8	11.1	6.1	56.5	0.0%	0.0%	17.9%	0.0%
7	Alanyaspor (13-8-9, 48 pts)	14.9	9.1	10.1	54.7	0.0%	0.0%	9.4%	0.0%
8	Goztepe (10-12-8, 38 pts)	11.1	13.7	9.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Gaziantep FK (9-10-11, 38 pts)	10.8	11.1	12.1	44.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Antalyaspor (9-11-10, 37 pts)	10.1	12.9	11.0	41.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Kasımpaşa (10-14-6, 36 pts)	11.1	15.8	7.1	40.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
12	Genclerbirligi (8-14-9, 33 pts)	8.8	15.4	9.8	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	4.2%
13	Denizlispor (8-15-8, 32 pts)	8.6	16.6	8.7	34.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	22.0%
14	Kayserispor (8-15-7, 31 pts)	8.7	17.5	7.8	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	47.4%
15	Konyaspor (6-12-12, 30 pts)	6.8	14.3	12.9	33.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	47.8%
16	Yeni Malatyaspor (7-15-8, 29 pts)	8.2	16.7	9.1	33.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	38.1%
17	Rizespor (8-17-5, 29 pts)	9.2	18.5	6.2	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	43.6%
18	Ankaragucu (5-15-10, 25 pts)	6.0	17.0	11.0	29.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	96.8%

Predictions Methodology

There are eighteen teams in Turkey’s Super Lig. For the current season, the top finisher in the Super Lig qualifies for the Champions League Group stage and the second place finisher makes it to the Champions League qualification stage. The third and fourth place teams will advance to the Europa league, while the last three teams of the Super Lig (16th through 18th) get relegated.