Turkey Super Lig Predictions

Updated 8 hr ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
08/22/2021 06:45 PM	Yeni Malatyaspor Goztepe	33.6% 41.4%	25.0%	+351 -123 +360 -125	1 0	-1.55984-1.57557	-1.09103
08/22/2021 06:45 PM	Antalyaspor Fenerbahce	24.6% 54.5%	20.9%	+370 -141 +390 -140	0 2	-0.58517-0.58834	-0.60778
08/22/2021 04:15 PM	Trabzonspor Konyaspor	49.1% 27.5%	23.4%	+203 +160 +195 +160	1 2	-1.00775-1.00570	-1.29244
08/21/2021 06:45 PM	Besiktas Gaziantep FK	44.8% 32.1%	23.1%	-141 +360 -145 +375	0 0	-1.40842-1.43734	-1.46581
08/21/2021 04:15 PM	Karagumruk Rizespor	47.5% 29.2%	23.2%	+160 +191 +155 +190	0 0	-1.19211-1.21147	-1.45938
08/16/2021 04:15 PM	Konyaspor Sivasspor	28.8% 46.4%	24.8%	+270 +116 +275 +115	1 0	-1.35588-1.36983	-1.24403
08/16/2021 04:15 PM	Trabzonspor Yeni Malatyaspor	48.6% 28.2%	23.2%	-105 +276 -105 +290	5 1	-0.71703-0.71812	-0.72103
08/15/2021 06:45 PM	Goztepe Antalyaspor	34.5% 40.1%	25.4%	+225 +127 +240 +120	1 1	-1.24820-1.24434	-1.36928
08/15/2021 04:15 PM	Alanyaspor Trabzonspor	36.3% 38.8%	25.0%	+255 +114 +275 +110	1 0	-1.30833-1.37105	-1.01377
08/14/2021 06:45 PM	Kasımpaşa Hatayspor	22.4% 59.3%	18.4%	+180 +150 +160 +160	1 1	-1.33340-1.31662	-1.69451
08/14/2021 04:15 PM	Gaziantep FK Karagumruk	34.5% 41.3%	24.2%	+300 -110 +335 -125	2 3	-0.70834-0.63858	-0.88409
08/13/2021 05:30 PM	Rizespor Besiktas	18.7% 64.8%	16.4%	+499 -189 +525 -210	0 3	-0.46002-0.44282	-0.43356
05/15/2021 05:30 PM	Yeni Malatyaspor Galatasaray	20.3% 61.7%	18.0%	+1509 -667 +2100 -1000	1 3	-0.17417-0.14610	-0.48256
05/15/2021 05:30 PM	Genclerbirligi Trabzonspor	18.9% 65.9%	15.2%	+291 -125 +285 -130	1 2	-0.62075-0.62394	-0.41773
05/15/2021 05:30 PM	Besiktas Goztepe	52.8% 26.1%	21.0%	-286 +943 -360 +860	2 1	-0.30332-0.29719	-0.63781
05/15/2021 05:30 PM	Fenerbahce Kayserispor	57.8% 23.0%	19.2%	-152 +379 -150 +380	2 1	-0.55438-0.56173	-0.54870

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	2	1-1-0 (0.500)	0	-0.63088
Sportsbooks	2	1-1-0 (0.500)	0	-0.66865
DRatings	2	2-0-0 (1.000)	0	-0.46658	0.16430 0.20207

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 07/06/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Basaksehir (19-3-9, 66 pts)	21.2	3.3	9.5	73.2	82.3%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Trabzonspor (17-3-10, 61 pts)	19.6	3.6	10.8	69.7	17.7%	99.3%	0.7%	0.0%
3	Sivasspor (15-6-9, 54 pts)	17.0	6.9	10.1	61.2	0.0%	0.7%	87.8%	0.0%
4	Galatasaray (14-6-10, 52 pts)	16.3	6.8	11.0	59.8	0.0%	0.0%	79.7%	0.0%
5	Fenerbahce (14-9-8, 50 pts)	15.0	10.1	8.9	54.0	0.0%	0.0%	4.5%	0.0%
6	Besiktas (15-10-5, 50 pts)	16.8	11.1	6.1	56.5	0.0%	0.0%	17.9%	0.0%
7	Alanyaspor (13-8-9, 48 pts)	14.9	9.1	10.1	54.7	0.0%	0.0%	9.4%	0.0%
8	Goztepe (10-12-8, 38 pts)	11.1	13.7	9.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Gaziantep FK (9-10-11, 38 pts)	10.8	11.1	12.1	44.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Antalyaspor (9-11-10, 37 pts)	10.1	12.9	11.0	41.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Kasımpaşa (10-14-6, 36 pts)	11.1	15.8	7.1	40.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
12	Genclerbirligi (8-14-9, 33 pts)	8.8	15.4	9.8	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	4.2%
13	Denizlispor (8-15-8, 32 pts)	8.6	16.6	8.7	34.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	22.0%
14	Kayserispor (8-15-7, 31 pts)	8.7	17.5	7.8	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	47.4%
15	Konyaspor (6-12-12, 30 pts)	6.8	14.3	12.9	33.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	47.8%
16	Yeni Malatyaspor (7-15-8, 29 pts)	8.2	16.7	9.1	33.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	38.1%
17	Rizespor (8-17-5, 29 pts)	9.2	18.5	6.2	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	43.6%
18	Ankaragucu (5-15-10, 25 pts)	6.0	17.0	11.0	29.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	96.8%

Predictions Methodology

There are eighteen teams in Turkey’s Super Lig. For the current season, the top finisher in the Super Lig qualifies for the Champions League Group stage and the second place finisher makes it to the Champions League qualification stage. The third and fourth place teams will advance to the Europa league, while the last three teams of the Super Lig (16th through 18th) get relegated.