UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+165
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+165
-190
+165
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-165
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-155
+145
-140
+120
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Merab Dvalishvili
Sean O'Malley		29.7%
70.3%
-110
-103
+105
+100
Win
Loss		-0.67735-0.70558-1.21359
Valentina Shevchenko
Alexa Grasso		92.7%
7.3%
+115
-126
+106
-120
Win
Loss		-0.78785-0.75313-0.07531
Norma Dumont
Irene Aldana		8.3%
91.7%
-135
+117
-110
+125
Win
Loss		-0.58900-0.61435-2.48555
Natalia Silva
Jessica Andrade		50.0%
50.0%
-275
+238
-280
+250
Win
Loss		-0.33893-0.32768-0.69315
Cody Durden
Matt Schnell		36.6%
63.4%
-275
+250
-300
+260
Win
Loss		-0.32902-0.31508-1.00632
Vanessa Demopoulos
Jaqueline Amorim		50.0%
50.0%
+215
-255
+240
-265
Loss
Win		-0.36600-0.34011-0.69315
Tabatha Ricci
Angela Hill		50.0%
50.0%
-178
+163
-175
+160
Win
Loss		-0.46614-0.47276-0.69315
Gerald Meerschaert
Edmen Shahbazyan		19.3%
80.7%
+280
-310
+280
-300
Win
Loss		-1.35406-1.34807-1.64305
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Tai Tuivasa		85.6%
14.4%
-230
+210
-215
+200
Win
Loss		-0.38037-0.39768-0.15502
Deiveson Figueiredo
Marlon Vera		82.9%
17.1%
-140
+125
-142
+135
Win
Loss		-0.56639-0.54535-0.18803
Michael Chiesa
Tony Ferguson		29.3%
70.7%
-490
+375
-450
+375
Win
Loss		-0.22593-0.22897-1.22741
Belal Muhammad
Leon Edwards		26.1%
73.9%
+200
-225
+220
-240
Win
Loss		-1.12393-1.18136-1.34320
Curtis Blaydes
Tom Aspinall		81.3%
18.7%
+325
-405
+340
-395
Loss
Win		-0.25727-0.25060-1.67681
Giga Chikadze
Arnold Allen		30.8%
69.2%
+225
-262
+230
-265
Loss
Win		-0.35426-0.34881-0.36782
Daniel Pineda
Nathaniel Wood		18.1%
81.9%
+385
-440
+340
-400
Loss
Win		-0.22558-0.25005-0.20016
Marcin Prachnio
Modestas Bukauskas		23.8%
76.2%
+133
-144
+125
-140
Loss
Win		-0.54652-0.56639-0.27156
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.