UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+165
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+165
-190
+165
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-165
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+150
-140
+120
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Virna Jandiroba
Amanda Lemos		50.0%
50.0%
-115
-105
-103
-110
Win
Loss		-0.67172-0.70920-0.69315
Bruno Silva
Cody Durden		16.8%
83.2%
-150
+134
-145
+147
Win
Loss		-0.53780-0.52121-1.78248
Lucie Pudilova
Luana Carolina		50.0%
50.0%
+122
-140
+125
-130
Loss
Win		-0.57222-0.58016-0.69315
Tracy Cortez
Rose Namajunas		50.0%
50.0%
+217
-250
+250
-270
Loss
Win		-0.36579-0.33041-0.69315
Roman Dolidze
Anthony Smith		67.2%
32.8%
-143
+125
-145
+130
Win
Loss		-0.56261-0.55080-0.39675
Macy Chiasson
Mayra Bueno Silva		45.1%
54.9%
-110
-103
-115
+102
Win
Loss		-0.67735-0.65520-0.79633
Andre Fili
Cub Swanson		44.9%
55.1%
-250
+215
-230
+215
Win
Loss		-0.36772-0.37533-0.80116
Michelle Waterson
Gillian Robertson		58.9%
41.1%
+155
-180
+160
-180
Loss
Win		-0.47625-0.46893-0.88902
Daniel Rodriguez
Kelvin Gastelum		74.6%
25.4%
+170
-190
+170
-175
Loss
Win		-0.44809-0.45869-1.36924
Volkan Oezdemir
Johnny Walker		57.8%
42.2%
+115
-135
+115
-125
Win
Loss		-0.80428-0.78592-0.54860
Jared Gordon
Nasrat Haqparast		76.3%
23.7%
+225
-260
+225
-240
Loss
Win		-0.35489-0.36179-1.43915
Miles Johns
Douglas Silva de Andrade		20.1%
79.9%
-170
+147
-180
+165
Win
Loss		-0.49653-0.46185-1.60410
Montana De La Rosa
Andrea Lee		28.4%
71.6%
+145
-160
+155
-155
Win
Loss		-0.91937-0.93609-1.25920
Dustin Poirier
Islam Makhachev		75.6%
24.4%
+380
-400
+350
-400
Loss
Win		-0.23144-0.24512-1.40993
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Kevin Holland		44.4%
55.6%
+260
-280
+270
-280
Loss
Win		-0.31990-0.31247-0.58674
Alex Morono
Niko Price		35.0%
65.0%
-272
+232
-280
+240
Loss
Win		-1.23186-1.25425-0.43044
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.