UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+165
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+165
-190
+165
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-165
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-165
+150
-170
+150
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lerone Murphy
Edson Barboza		73.9%
26.1%
-145
+137
-155
+150
Win
Loss		-0.53820-0.50566-0.30311
Angela Hill
Luana Pinheiro		50.0%
50.0%
-130
+112
-130
+120
Win
Loss		-0.60679-0.59012-0.69315
Emily Ducote
Vanessa Demopoulos		50.0%
50.0%
-350
+325
-360
+310
Loss
Win		-1.45994-1.43717-0.69315
Karine Silva
Ariane Lipski		50.0%
50.0%
-165
+145
-168
+155
Win
Loss		-0.50411-0.48587-0.69315
Max Holloway
Justin Gaethje		62.4%
37.6%
+155
-160
+165
-165
Win
Loss		-0.94358-0.97456-0.47148
Arman Tsarukyan
Charles Oliveira		40.4%
59.6%
-220
+185
-194
+200
Win
Loss		-0.41235-0.40890-0.90651
Aleksandar Rakic
Jiri Prochazka		35.5%
64.5%
-141
+121
-115
+115
Loss
Win		-0.82986-0.76546-0.43847
Aljamain Sterling
Calvin Kattar		58.6%
41.4%
-185
+168
-170
+170
Win
Loss		-0.45415-0.46262-0.53471
Kayla Harrison
Holly Holm		50.0%
50.0%
-450
+355
-440
+445
Win
Loss		-0.23793-0.20310-0.69315
Renato Moicano
Jalin Turner		86.1%
13.9%
+220
-260
+220
-240
Win
Loss		-1.19730-1.18136-0.14945
Marina Rodriguez
Jessica Andrade		44.1%
55.9%
+138
-158
+130
-135
Loss
Win		-0.52243-0.56352-0.58214
Cody Garbrandt
Deiveson Figueiredo		31.5%
68.5%
+300
-375
+300
-340
Loss
Win		-0.27511-0.28030-0.37870
Alex Morono
Court McGee		69.1%
30.9%
-335
+290
-340
+280
Win
Loss		-0.28740-0.29308-0.36986
Germaine de Randamie
Norma Dumont		98.2%
1.8%
+100
-105
+100
-105
Loss
Win		-0.68116-0.68116-4.02128
Manon Fiorot
Erin Blanchfield		50.0%
50.0%
+170
-190
+190
-200
Win
Loss		-1.01846-1.07614-0.69315
Joaquin Buckley
Vicente Luque		11.9%
88.1%
+120
-135
+120
-125
Win
Loss		-0.81706-0.79851-2.13267
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.