UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+165
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+165
-190
+165
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-165
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+150
-170
+150
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bruno Silva
Chris Weidman		9.3%
90.7%
-160
+148
-180
+160
Loss
Win		-0.92669-0.98262-0.09769
Kyle Nelson
Bill Algeo		68.5%
31.5%
+252
-290
+240
-270
Win
Loss		-1.28576-1.24733-0.37882
Rose Namajunas
Amanda Ribas		47.4%
52.6%
-205
+188
-210
+195
Win
Loss		-0.41647-0.40573-0.74697
Ricardo Ramos
Julian Erosa		33.9%
66.1%
-168
+150
-180
+160
Loss
Win		-0.94281-0.98262-0.41409
Marcin Tybura
Tai Tuivasa		53.7%
46.3%
+100
-110
-105
+100
Win
Loss		-0.71668-0.68116-0.62254
Macy Chiasson
Pannie Kianzad		65.8%
34.2%
-230
+200
-235
+200
Win
Loss		-0.39087-0.38877-0.41875
Bryan Barberena
Gerald Meerschaert		50.8%
49.2%
+220
-250
+205
-235
Loss
Win		-0.36291-0.38349-0.70907
Cory McKenna
Jaqueline Amorim		50.0%
50.0%
-140
+133
-152
+145
Loss
Win		-0.85830-0.90736-0.69315
Marlon Vera
Sean O'Malley		22.4%
77.6%
+245
-265
+240
-265
Loss
Win		-0.33593-0.34011-0.25349
Katlyn Chookagian
Maycee Barber		54.8%
45.2%
+168
-193
+160
-180
Loss
Win		-0.44882-0.46893-0.79429
Yair Rodriguez
Brian Ortega		43.8%
56.2%
-165
+145
-165
+155
Loss
Win		-0.92644-0.95078-0.57593
Paulo Costa
Robert Whittaker		59.5%
40.5%
+185
-210
+190
-190
Loss
Win		-0.41737-0.42286-0.90471
Henry Cejudo
Merab Dvalishvili		87.7%
12.3%
+245
-290
+265
-290
Loss
Win		-0.32917-0.31367-2.09712
Mackenzie Dern
Amanda Lemos		50.0%
50.0%
+137
-155
+140
-140
Loss
Win		-0.52719-0.53900-0.69315
Andrea Lee
Miranda Maverick		50.0%
50.0%
+173
-203
+180
-190
Loss
Win		-0.43615-0.43510-0.69315
Andre Fili
Dan Ige		40.2%
59.8%
+165
-185
+165
-170
Loss
Win		-0.45828-0.46959-0.51490
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.