UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+165
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+165
-190
+165
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-165
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+150
-170
+150
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Marcin Prachnio
Devin Clark		35.9%
64.1%
+180
-210
+335
-200
Win
Loss		-1.06360-1.36098-1.02418
Renato Moicano
Drew Dober		68.4%
31.6%
-120
+175
-190
+185
Win
Loss		-0.51083-0.42889-0.37908
Diana Belbita
Molly McCann		50.0%
50.0%
+212
-250
+215
-240
Loss
Win		-0.37067-0.37138-0.69315
Luana Carolina
Julija Stoliarenko		50.0%
50.0%
+135
+100
+150
-150
Win
Loss		-0.77703-0.91629-0.69315
Raquel Pennington
Mayra Bueno Silva		64.9%
35.1%
+150
-164
+145
-155
Win
Loss		-0.93728-0.91198-0.43308
Arnold Allen
Movsar Evloev		60.0%
40.0%
+170
-168
+170
-185
Loss
Win		-0.46426-0.45144-0.91577
Polyana Viana
Gillian Robertson		50.0%
50.0%
+260
-178
+260
-310
Loss
Win		-0.36035-0.31290-0.69315
Priscila Cachoeira
Jasmine Jasudavicius		50.0%
50.0%
+325
-358
+335
-395
Loss
Win		-0.26315-0.25316-0.69315
Johnny Walker
Magomed Ankalaev		52.4%
47.6%
+388
-488
+425
-460
Loss
Win		-0.22067-0.20855-0.74267
Mario Bautista
Ricky Simon		38.7%
61.3%
+150
-155
+155
-170
Win
Loss		-0.92410-0.95763-0.94949
Colby Covington
Leon Edwards		30.8%
69.2%
+120
-135
+130
-140
Loss
Win		-0.58291-0.55696-0.36831
Josh Emmett
Bryce Mitchell		61.7%
38.3%
+225
-250
+230
-260
Win
Loss		-1.20041-1.21885-0.48256
Brian Kelleher
Cody Garbrandt		28.4%
71.6%
+170
-185
+165
-180
Loss
Win		-0.45144-0.46185-0.33377
Ariane Lipski
Casey O'Neill		50.0%
50.0%
+157
-178
+150
-170
Win
Loss		-0.97286-0.94549-0.69315
Anthony Smith
Khalil Rountree Jr.		72.7%
27.3%
+175
-205
+185
-200
Loss
Win		-0.43245-0.42286-1.29883
Paul Craig
Brendan Allen		23.5%
76.5%
+375
-457
+365
-440
Loss
Win		-0.22841-0.23422-0.26851
Load More Fights

Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.