UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for February 21, 2026

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Punahele Soriano
Ramiz Brahimaj 		76.1%
23.9%
+110
-130
+120
-140
Fights for Feb 20, 2026
Fights for Feb 22, 2026

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Priscila Cachoeira
Josiane Nunes		50.0%
50.0%
+153
-170
+152
-155
Win
Loss		-0.95280-0.92889-0.69315
Rafael Fiziev
Justin Gaethje		31.2%
68.8%
-145
+135
-145
+140
Loss
Win		-0.87165-0.88394-0.37416
Anthony Hernandez
Brendan Allen		24.7%
75.3%
-290
+270
-310
+280
Win
Loss		-0.31004-0.29866-1.39958
Tatiana Suarez
Zhang Weili		44.6%
55.4%
-144
+125
-150
+135
Loss
Win		-0.84495-0.87962-0.59115
Mayra Bueno Silva
Jasmine Jasudavicius		50.0%
50.0%
+210
-245
+220
-240
Loss
Win		-0.37449-0.36652-0.69315
Renato Moicano
Islam Makhachev		59.4%
40.6%
+900
-1300
+900
-1100
Loss
Win		-0.10228-0.10354-0.90108
Jamahal Hill
Jiri Prochazka		31.5%
68.5%
-112
-105
-115
+105
Loss
Win		-0.70875-0.74028-0.37832
Diego Ferreira
Grant Dawson		56.2%
43.8%
+235
-270
+230
-240
Loss
Win		-0.34293-0.35718-0.82538
Amanda Ribas
Mackenzie Dern		88.6%
11.4%
-180
+180
-185
+170
Loss
Win		-1.02963-1.01255-2.17252
Joaquin Buckley
Colby Covington		13.1%
86.9%
-225
+190
-220
+210
Win
Loss		-0.40419-0.38472-2.03019
Billy Quarantillo
Cub Swanson		55.7%
44.3%
-200
+175
-190
+175
Loss
Win		-1.04146-1.03022-0.81414
Alexander Volkov
Ciryl Gane		42.6%
57.4%
+260
-310
+330
-330
Loss
Win		-0.31290-0.26469-0.55478
Kron Gracie
Bryce Mitchell		38.2%
61.8%
+650
-950
+650
-700
Loss
Win		-0.13747-0.14183-0.48094
Dominick Reyes
Anthony Smith		73.5%
26.5%
-425
+330
-370
+320
Win
Loss		-0.25253-0.26425-0.30821
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev		71.4%
28.6%
+210
-235
+210
-235
Loss
Win		-0.37834-0.37834-1.25197
Eryk Anders
Chris Weidman		42.0%
58.0%
-106
-112
-105
-110
Win
Loss		-0.70641-0.70441-0.86705
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0 (1.000)0-0.22396 
Sportsbooks11-0 (1.000)0-0.20929 
DRatings11-0 (1.000)0-0.36924
-0.14528
-0.15995

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.