UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+165
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+165
-190
+165
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-165
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+150
-170
+150
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Luana Pinheiro
Amanda Ribas		50.0%
50.0%
+203
-230
+205
-240
Loss
Win		-0.38765-0.38151-0.69315
Jessica Andrade
Mackenzie Dern		84.4%
15.6%
+205
-230
+210
-240
Win
Loss		-1.13968-1.15948-0.16927
Kamaru Usman
Khamzat Chimaev		81.3%
18.7%
+295
-310
+300
-340
Loss
Win		-0.28880-0.28030-1.67499
Edson Barboza
Sodiq Yusuff		26.4%
73.6%
+160
-170
+165
-160
Win
Loss		-0.96964-0.96727-1.33048
Ashley Yoder
Emily Ducote		50.0%
50.0%
+317
-383
+320
-380
Loss
Win		-0.26423-0.26295-0.69315
Bobby Green
Grant Dawson		27.1%
72.9%
+450
-503
+400
-430
Win
Loss		-1.72059-1.62070-1.30641
Joaquin Buckley
Alex Morono		29.0%
71.0%
-170
+167
-175
+160
Win
Loss		-0.46678-0.47276-1.23929
Rick Glenn
Drew Dober		26.9%
73.1%
+350
-375
+300
-350
Loss
Win		-0.24801-0.27871-0.31315
Alexander Hernandez
Bill Algeo		75.4%
24.6%
-115
+102
-110
+100
Loss
Win		-0.73260-0.71668-1.40116
Diana Belbita
Karolina Kowalkiewicz		50.0%
50.0%
+130
-130
+117
-135
Loss
Win		-0.57054-0.58900-0.69315
Vanessa Demopoulos
Kanako Murata		50.0%
50.0%
+329
-350
+350
-380
Win
Loss		-1.46711-1.51786-0.69315
Dan Ige
Bryce Mitchell		53.3%
46.7%
+178
-207
+185
-190
Loss
Win		-0.42754-0.42889-0.76224
Michelle Waterson
Marina Rodriguez		44.5%
55.5%
+350
-383
+340
-360
Loss
Win		-0.24705-0.25496-0.58848
Charles Jourdain
Ricardo Ramos		31.1%
68.9%
-140
+131
-135
+131
Win
Loss		-0.55511-0.56165-1.16780
Hannah Goldy
Inoue Mizuki		50.0%
50.0%
+275
-325
+280
-330
Loss
Win		-0.29916-0.29484-0.69315
Alexa Grasso
Valentina Shevchenko		7.3%
92.7%
+145
-158
+150
-160
Draw
Draw		-0.71358-0.71617-1.34946
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.