UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for April 12, 2025

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Dominick Reyes
Nikita Krylov 		77.4%
22.6%
+170
-195
+160
-180
Overall Bet Value Active
Virna Jandiroba
Yan Xiaonan 		3.7%
96.3%
-145
+125
-150
+135
Chase Hooper
Jim Miller 		30.2%
69.8%
-650
+525
-700
+520
Julian Erosa
Darren Elkins 		70.5%
29.5%
-360
+305
-370
+320
Fights for Apr 11, 2025
Fights for Apr 13, 2025

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Ricardo Ramos
Julian Erosa		33.9%
66.1%
-168
+150
-180
+160
Loss
Win		-0.94281-0.98262-0.41409
Marcin Tybura
Tai Tuivasa		53.7%
46.3%
+100
-110
-105
+100
Win
Loss		-0.71668-0.68116-0.62254
Macy Chiasson
Pannie Kianzad		65.8%
34.2%
-230
+200
-235
+200
Win
Loss		-0.39087-0.38877-0.41875
Bryan Barberena
Gerald Meerschaert		50.8%
49.2%
+220
-250
+205
-235
Loss
Win		-0.36291-0.38349-0.70907
Cory McKenna
Jaqueline Amorim		50.0%
50.0%
-140
+133
-152
+145
Loss
Win		-0.85830-0.90736-0.69315
Marlon Vera
Sean O'Malley		22.4%
77.6%
+245
-265
+240
-265
Loss
Win		-0.33593-0.34011-0.25349
Katlyn Chookagian
Maycee Barber		54.8%
45.2%
+168
-193
+160
-180
Loss
Win		-0.44882-0.46893-0.79429
Yair Rodriguez
Brian Ortega		43.8%
56.2%
-165
+145
-165
+155
Loss
Win		-0.92644-0.95078-0.57593
Paulo Costa
Robert Whittaker		59.5%
40.5%
+185
-210
+190
-190
Loss
Win		-0.41737-0.42286-0.90471
Henry Cejudo
Merab Dvalishvili		87.7%
12.3%
+245
-290
+265
-290
Loss
Win		-0.32917-0.31367-2.09712
Mackenzie Dern
Amanda Lemos		50.0%
50.0%
+137
-155
+140
-140
Loss
Win		-0.52719-0.53900-0.69315
Andrea Lee
Miranda Maverick		50.0%
50.0%
+173
-203
+180
-190
Loss
Win		-0.43615-0.43510-0.69315
Andre Fili
Dan Ige		40.2%
59.8%
+165
-185
+165
-170
Loss
Win		-0.45828-0.46959-0.51490
Marcin Prachnio
Devin Clark		35.9%
64.1%
+180
-210
+335
-200
Win
Loss		-1.06360-1.36098-1.02418
Renato Moicano
Drew Dober		68.4%
31.6%
-120
+175
-190
+185
Win
Loss		-0.51083-0.42889-0.37908
Diana Belbita
Molly McCann		50.0%
50.0%
+212
-250
+215
-240
Loss
Win		-0.37067-0.37138-0.69315
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks33-0 (1.000)0-0.30353 
Sportsbooks33-0 (1.000)0-0.31830 
DRatings32-0 (0.833)1-0.57554
-0.27201
-0.25723

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.