UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+165
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+165
-190
+165
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-165
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+150
-170
+150
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Aleksa Camur
Tanner Boser		64.1%
35.9%
+112
-124
+115
-130
Loss
Win		-0.61632-0.60042-1.02513
Justin Gaethje
Dustin Poirier		46.2%
53.8%
+134
-150
+140
-145
Win
Loss		-0.87714-0.88394-0.77117
Tony Ferguson
Bobby Green		77.4%
22.6%
+285
-340
+315
-340
Loss
Win		-0.28978-0.27143-1.48713
Michael Chiesa
Kevin Holland		63.5%
36.5%
+125
-130
+126
-135
Loss
Win		-0.58016-0.57111-1.00690
Priscila Cachoeira
Miranda Maverick		50.0%
50.0%
+240
-280
+222
-260
Loss
Win		-0.33588-0.35768-0.69315
Marcin Tybura
Tom Aspinall		42.0%
58.0%
+375
-475
+385
-450
Loss
Win		-0.22701-0.22474-0.54438
Julija Stoliarenko
Molly McCann		50.0%
50.0%
+170
-200
+185
-190
Win
Loss		-1.02963-1.05334-0.69315
Andre Fili
Nathaniel Wood		38.7%
61.3%
+190
-205
+180
-195
Loss
Win		-0.41412-0.43197-0.48941
Pannie Kianzad
Ketlen Vieira		30.5%
69.5%
+140
-155
+147
-150
Loss
Win		-0.52206-0.51567-0.36335
Mayra Bueno Silva
Holly Holm		35.0%
65.0%
+145
-160
+158
-160
Win
Loss		-0.91937-0.95075-1.04948
Alexandre Pantoja
Brandon Moreno		48.5%
51.5%
+191
-200
+180
-190
Win
Loss		-1.07843-1.04185-0.72268
Dan Hooker
Jalin Turner		84.1%
15.9%
+245
-285
+260
-270
Win
Loss		-1.26805-1.28841-0.17304
Robbie Lawler
Niko Price		29.5%
70.5%
+182
-207
+180
-195
Win
Loss		-1.06520-1.04762-1.22203
Jimmy Crute
Alonzo Menifield		66.7%
33.3%
-147
+132
-145
+133
Loss
Win		-0.86741-0.86669-1.09979
Ariane Lipski
Melissa Gatto		50.0%
50.0%
+210
-235
+205
-230
Win
Loss		-1.15518-1.13968-0.69315
Blagoy Ivanov
Alexandr Romanov		74.2%
25.8%
+121
-141
+130
-135
Loss
Win		-0.57290-0.56352-1.35375
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.