UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+165
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+165
-190
+165
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-165
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-163
+150
-170
+150
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Maycee Barber
Amanda Ribas		34.9%
65.1%
+170
-178
+170
-185
Win
Loss		-1.00387-1.01255-1.05200
Bruno Silva
Brendan Allen		4.5%
95.5%
+195
-225
+195
-220
Loss
Win		-0.39854-0.40084-0.04637
Wellington Turman
Randy Brown		44.4%
55.6%
+225
-255
+210
-240
Loss
Win		-0.35652-0.37637-0.58767
Gillian Robertson
Tabatha Ricci		50.0%
50.0%
+110
-117
+110
-109
Loss
Win		-0.63297-0.64871-0.69315
Marvin Vettori
Jared Cannonier		60.8%
39.2%
-129
+115
-130
+120
Loss
Win		-0.79350-0.80802-0.93769
Irene Aldana
Amanda Nunes		12.4%
87.6%
+260
-290
+275
-315
Loss
Win		-0.31741-0.30109-0.13257
Beneil Dariush
Charles Oliveira		47.4%
52.6%
-145
+140
-155
+140
Loss
Win		-0.88394-0.89968-0.64217
Eryk Anders
Marc-Andre Barriault		63.8%
36.2%
+125
-140
+130
-145
Loss
Win		-0.56639-0.55080-1.01733
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Miranda Maverick		50.0%
50.0%
+203
-235
+210
-230
Win
Loss		-1.13959-1.15078-0.69315
Amir Albazi
Kai Kara-France		61.7%
38.3%
-121
+110
-120
+118
Win
Loss		-0.62581-0.61031-0.48251
Daniel Pineda
Alex Caceres		43.6%
56.4%
+185
-195
+185
-185
Loss
Win		-0.42580-0.43214-0.57357
Elise Reed
Jinh Yu Frey		50.0%
50.0%
-135
+117
-130
+126
Win
Loss		-0.58900-0.57821-0.69315
Angela Hill
Mackenzie Dern		64.1%
35.9%
+140
-151
+140
-155
Loss
Win		-0.52628-0.52206-1.02404
Edmen Shahbazyan
Anthony Hernandez		86.8%
13.2%
+175
-205
+180
-190
Loss
Win		-0.43245-0.43510-2.02594
Diego Ferreira
Michael Johnson		82.9%
17.1%
-145
+127
-135
+125
Win
Loss		-0.55638-0.57304-0.18739
Vanessa Demopoulos
Karolina Kowalkiewicz		50.0%
50.0%
+122
-125
+135
-135
Loss
Win		-0.59377-0.55431-0.69315
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.