UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+165
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+170
-190
+165
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-165
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+150
-170
+150
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Victoria Leonardo
Natalia Silva		50.0%
50.0%
+665
-900
+600
-825
Loss
Win		-0.13561-0.14857-0.69315
Anthony Smith
Johnny Walker		54.9%
45.1%
+105
-120
+115
-120
Loss
Win		-0.63885-0.61667-0.79660
Tim Means
Alex Morono		43.3%
56.7%
+180
-200
+190
-210
Loss
Win		-0.42898-0.41146-0.56796
Court McGee
Matt Brown		39.5%
60.5%
-220
+190
-220
+195
Loss
Win		-1.09652-1.10794-0.50334
Mandy Bohm
Ji Yeon Kim		50.0%
50.0%
+225
-250
+230
-230
Win
Loss		-1.20041-1.19392-0.69315
Aljamain Sterling
Henry Cejudo		34.5%
65.5%
+110
-120
+118
-125
Win
Loss		-0.76336-0.79350-1.06343
Belal Muhammad
Gilbert Burns		45.6%
54.4%
+135
-145
+140
-155
Win
Loss		-0.87165-0.89968-0.78621
Yan Xiaonan
Jessica Andrade		68.8%
31.2%
+148
-165
+152
-160
Win
Loss		-0.93379-0.93639-0.37405
Kron Gracie
Charles Jourdain		62.3%
37.7%
+144
-160
+140
-155
Loss
Win		-0.51043-0.52206-0.97464
Matt Frevola
Drew Dober		34.0%
66.0%
+185
-200
+185
-195
Win
Loss		-1.06470-1.05915-1.07955
Virna Jandiroba
Marina Rodriguez		9.7%
90.3%
-115
-105
-105
+110
Win
Loss		-0.67172-0.65736-2.33738
Bruno Silva
Brad Tavares		6.8%
93.2%
+155
-160
+165
-180
Win
Loss		-0.94358-0.99458-2.68869
Jared Gordon
Bobby Green		34.6%
65.4%
+225
-260
+230
-260
Draw
Draw		-0.78152-0.78461-0.74268
Christos Giagos
Rick Glenn		64.0%
36.0%
+140
-144
+140
-150
Win
Loss		-0.88228-0.89199-0.44696
Arnold Allen
Max Holloway		35.1%
64.9%
+155
-165
+143
-160
Loss
Win		-0.48848-0.51206-0.43294
Billy Quarantillo
Edson Barboza		54.1%
45.9%
-165
+157
-170
+160
Loss
Win		-0.95558-0.96964-0.77910
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.