UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+165
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+170
-190
+165
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-165
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+150
-170
+150
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Ion Cutelaba
Tanner Boser		51.6%
48.4%
-110
+110
-130
+120
Win
Loss		-0.64663-0.59012-0.66109
Pedro Munhoz
Chris Gutierrez		65.4%
34.6%
+205
-205
+220
-200
Win
Loss		-1.11514-1.14209-0.42529
Ed Herman
Zak Cummings		33.0%
67.0%
+185
-205
+190
-200
Loss
Win		-0.42006-0.41690-0.40090
Jorge Masvidal
Gilbert Burns		51.2%
48.8%
+335
-370
+350
-400
Loss
Win		-0.25621-0.24512-0.71697
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Kevin Holland		74.6%
25.4%
+220
-251
+240
-250
Loss
Win		-0.36256-0.34485-1.37160
Michelle Waterson
Luana Pinheiro		50.0%
50.0%
+130
-141
+140
-145
Loss
Win		-0.55568-0.53299-0.69315
Cynthia Calvillo
Loopy Godinez		50.0%
50.0%
+220
-244
+228
-240
Loss
Win		-0.36504-0.35901-0.69315
Sam Hughes
Jaqueline Amorim		50.0%
50.0%
+240
-270
+245
-267
Win
Loss		-1.24733-1.25558-0.69315
Marlon Vera
Cory Sandhagen		23.8%
76.2%
+140
-150
+135
-140
Loss
Win		-0.52736-0.54782-0.27214
Andrea Lee
Maycee Barber		34.6%
65.4%
+230
-263
+235
-270
Loss
Win		-0.34943-0.34293-0.42540
Leon Edwards
Kamaru Usman		30.0%
70.0%
+225
-255
+240
-265
Win
Loss		-1.20434-1.24372-1.20391
Justin Gaethje
Rafael Fiziev		68.8%
31.2%
+225
-255
+240
-245
Win
Loss		-1.20434-1.22803-0.37416
Bryan Barberena
Gunnar Nelson		34.0%
66.0%
+315
-360
+330
-370
Loss
Win		-0.26842-0.25884-0.41544
Jennifer Maia
Casey O'Neill		50.0%
50.0%
+165
-175
+175
-175
Win
Loss		-0.98819-1.01159-0.69315
Roman Dolidze
Marvin Vettori		59.5%
40.5%
+220
-255
+220
-240
Loss
Win		-0.36120-0.36652-0.90429
Luana Carolina
Joanne Calderwood		50.0%
50.0%
+155
-175
+165
-180
Loss
Win		-0.48012-0.46185-0.69315
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.