UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+165
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+170
-190
+165
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-165
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+150
-170
+150
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Merab Dvalishvili
Petr Yan		9.7%
90.3%
+215
-250
+225
-235
Win
Loss		-1.17866-1.18780-2.33037
Ryan Spann
Nikita Krylov		54.4%
45.6%
+155
-157
+150
-165
Loss
Win		-0.49589-0.49617-0.78627
Guido Cannetti
Mario Bautista		21.4%
78.6%
+750
-1000
+750
-915
Loss
Win		-0.12170-0.12266-0.24081
Raphael Assuncao
Davey Grant		89.4%
10.6%
+120
-140
+130
-145
Loss
Win		-0.57618-0.55080-2.24318
Ciryl Gane
Jon Jones		19.9%
80.1%
+160
-160
+148
-160
Loss
Win		-0.48552-0.50395-0.22177
Alexa Grasso
Valentina Shevchenko		7.3%
92.7%
+620
-800
+750
-825
Win
Loss		-2.00144-2.14952-2.62362
Trevin Jones
Cody Garbrandt		14.6%
85.4%
+160
-175
+160
-175
Loss
Win		-0.47276-0.47276-0.15826
Jessica Penne
Tabatha Ricci		50.0%
50.0%
+315
-330
+325
-300
Loss
Win		-0.27306-0.27286-0.69315
Don'Tale Mayes
Augusto Sakai		5.4%
94.6%
-115
+100
-105
-105
Loss
Win		-0.72743-0.69315-0.05601
Montana De La Rosa
Tatiana Suarez		2.7%
97.3%
+650
-750
+650
-740
Loss
Win		-0.14072-0.14093-0.02701
Erin Blanchfield
Jessica Andrade		50.0%
50.0%
+107
-112
+110
-115
Win
Loss		-0.73888-0.75294-0.69315
Josh Emmett
Yair Rodriguez		39.5%
60.5%
+158
-177
+170
-170
Loss
Win		-0.47411-0.46262-0.50317
Alonzo Menifield
Jimmy Crute		33.3%
66.7%
+155
-165
+150
-165
Draw
Draw		-0.71963-0.71743-0.75233
Elise Reed
Loma Lookboonmee		50.0%
50.0%
+290
-340
+320
-300
Loss
Win		-0.28655-0.27571-0.69315
Blagoy Ivanov
Marcin Tybura		62.7%
37.3%
+135
-145
+130
-135
Loss
Win		-0.54173-0.56352-0.98658
Glover Teixeira
Jamahal Hill		49.3%
50.7%
+125
-125
+130
-140
Loss
Win		-0.58778-0.55696-0.67964
Load More Fights

Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.