UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for February 21, 2026

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Punahele Soriano
Ramiz Brahimaj 		76.1%
23.9%
+115
-130
+120
-140
Fights for Feb 20, 2026
Fights for Feb 22, 2026

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Johnny Walker
Magomed Ankalaev		52.4%
47.6%
+388
-488
+425
-460
Loss
Win		-0.22067-0.20855-0.74267
Mario Bautista
Ricky Simon		38.7%
61.3%
+150
-155
+155
-170
Win
Loss		-0.92410-0.95763-0.94949
Colby Covington
Leon Edwards		30.8%
69.2%
+120
-135
+130
-140
Loss
Win		-0.58291-0.55696-0.36831
Josh Emmett
Bryce Mitchell		61.7%
38.3%
+225
-250
+230
-260
Win
Loss		-1.20041-1.21885-0.48256
Brian Kelleher
Cody Garbrandt		28.4%
71.6%
+170
-185
+165
-180
Loss
Win		-0.45144-0.46185-0.33377
Ariane Lipski
Casey O'Neill		50.0%
50.0%
+157
-178
+150
-170
Win
Loss		-0.97286-0.94549-0.69315
Anthony Smith
Khalil Rountree Jr.		72.7%
27.3%
+175
-205
+185
-200
Loss
Win		-0.43245-0.42286-1.29883
Paul Craig
Brendan Allen		23.5%
76.5%
+375
-457
+365
-440
Loss
Win		-0.22841-0.23422-0.26851
Luana Pinheiro
Amanda Ribas		50.0%
50.0%
+203
-230
+205
-240
Loss
Win		-0.38765-0.38151-0.69315
Jessica Andrade
Mackenzie Dern		84.4%
15.6%
+205
-230
+210
-240
Win
Loss		-1.13968-1.15948-0.16927
Kamaru Usman
Khamzat Chimaev		81.3%
18.7%
+295
-310
+300
-340
Loss
Win		-0.28880-0.28030-1.67499
Edson Barboza
Sodiq Yusuff		26.4%
73.6%
+160
-170
+165
-160
Win
Loss		-0.96964-0.96727-1.33048
Ashley Yoder
Emily Ducote		50.0%
50.0%
+317
-383
+320
-380
Loss
Win		-0.26423-0.26295-0.69315
Bobby Green
Grant Dawson		27.1%
72.9%
+450
-503
+400
-430
Win
Loss		-1.72059-1.62070-1.30641
Joaquin Buckley
Alex Morono		29.0%
71.0%
-170
+167
-175
+160
Win
Loss		-0.46678-0.47276-1.23929
Rick Glenn
Drew Dober		26.9%
73.1%
+350
-375
+300
-350
Loss
Win		-0.24801-0.27871-0.31315
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0 (1.000)0-0.22396 
Sportsbooks11-0 (1.000)0-0.20929 
DRatings11-0 (1.000)0-0.36924
-0.14528
-0.15995

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.