UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+165
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+170
-190
+165
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-165
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-165
+150
-170
+150
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Deiveson Figueiredo
Brandon Moreno		73.8%
26.2%
+125
-115
+125
-135
Loss
Win		-0.60482-0.57304-1.34075
Neil Magny
Gilbert Burns		33.9%
66.1%
+475
-485
+450
-505
Loss
Win		-0.19043-0.19706-0.41328
Lauren Murphy
Jessica Andrade		21.8%
78.2%
+485
-525
+425
-510
Loss
Win		-0.18523-0.20524-0.24550
Paul Craig
Johnny Walker		30.1%
69.9%
+160
-170
+170
-185
Loss
Win		-0.47678-0.45144-0.35752
Zarah Fairn
Josiane Nunes		50.0%
50.0%
+500
-550
+500
-550
Loss
Win		-0.17980-0.17980-0.69315
Raquel Pennington
Ketlen Vieira		65.4%
34.6%
+130
-115
+130
-130
Win
Loss		-0.80211-0.83292-0.42425
Frankie Edgar
Chris Gutierrez		53.6%
46.4%
+220
-210
+205
-240
Loss
Win		-0.37933-0.38151-0.76778
Ryan Spann
Dominick Reyes		25.9%
74.1%
+195
-210
+190
-210
Win
Loss		-1.09808-1.08672-1.35236
Erin Blanchfield
Molly McCann		50.0%
50.0%
-270
+318
-385
+330
Win
Loss		-0.28354-0.25693-0.69315
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Silvana Gomez Juarez		50.0%
50.0%
+100
-110
+100
-110
Win
Loss		-0.71668-0.71668-0.69315
Julio Arce
Montel Jackson		47.8%
52.2%
+170
-200
+180
-200
Loss
Win		-0.44183-0.42898-0.65045
Amanda Lemos
Marina Rodriguez		50.0%
50.0%
+222
-210
+220
-240
Win
Loss		-1.15728-1.18136-0.69315
Daniel Rodriguez
Neil Magny		67.3%
32.7%
-103
-105
+105
-115
Loss
Win		-0.68844-0.64814-1.11673
Benito Lopez
Mario Bautista		26.8%
73.2%
+358
-245
+345
-400
Loss
Win		-0.26809-0.24756-0.31139
Jinh Yu Frey
Polyana Viana		50.0%
50.0%
+125
-110
+125
-145
Loss
Win		-0.61435-0.56016-0.69315
Charles Oliveira
Islam Makhachev		56.9%
43.1%
+170
-170
+180
-180
Loss
Win		-0.46262-0.44183-0.84128
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.