UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+165
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+170
-190
+165
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-165
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+150
-170
+150
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
TJ Dillashaw
Aljamain Sterling		44.2%
55.8%
+165
-155
+160
-160
Loss
Win		-0.48293-0.48552-0.58395
Sean O'Malley
Petr Yan		20.3%
79.7%
+245
-250
+245
-260
Win
Loss		-1.24251-1.25037-1.59406
Katlyn Chookagian
Manon Fiorot		50.0%
50.0%
+200
-195
+195
-210
Loss
Win		-0.40830-0.40573-0.69315
Volkan Oezdemir
Nikita Krylov		58.1%
41.9%
+165
-180
+180
-175
Loss
Win		-0.46185-0.44547-0.87105
Jordan Wright
Dusko Todorovic		10.3%
89.7%
+190
-200
+195
-210
Loss
Win		-0.41690-0.40573-0.10889
Misha Cirkunov
Alonzo Menifield		67.2%
32.8%
+180
-190
+175
-190
Loss
Win		-0.43510-0.44150-1.11492
Francisco Trinaldo
Randy Brown		50.1%
49.9%
+300
-320
+280
-320
Loss
Win		-0.28377-0.29670-0.69509
Trevin Jones
Raoni Barcelos		5.2%
94.8%
+225
-250
+215
-240
Loss
Win		-0.35820-0.37138-0.05352
Aleksei Oleinik
Ilir Latifi		54.5%
45.5%
+180
-210
+175
-200
Loss
Win		-0.42344-0.43532-0.78735
Krzysztof Jotko
Brendan Allen		26.9%
73.1%
-105
+100
-115
+110
Loss
Win		-0.70528-0.75294-0.31372
Guido Cannetti
Randy Costa		61.8%
38.2%
+250
-275
+250
-270
Win
Loss		-1.27165-1.26808-0.48046
Andre Fili
Bill Algeo		74.0%
26.0%
-130
+115
-130
+110
Win
Loss		-0.60042-0.61112-0.30083
Marc-Andre Barriault
Anthony Hernandez		36.7%
63.3%
+185
-210
+190
-210
Loss
Win		-0.41737-0.41146-0.45714
Gillian Robertson
Mariya Agapova		50.0%
50.0%
-145
+135
-140
+125
Win
Loss		-0.54173-0.56639-0.69315
Tony Ferguson
Nate Diaz		73.4%
26.6%
-140
+140
-145
+140
Loss
Win		-0.87546-0.88394-1.32366
Kevin Holland
Khamzat Chimaev		22.1%
77.9%
+475
-620
+500
-555
Loss
Win		-0.18396-0.17957-0.25000
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.