Derby County at Swansea City

Updated

Derby County

17.9%23.5%58.6%
WinDrawSwansea City Win
0.84Projected Goals 1.73
1Final Score 2

Swansea City

Last 5 Games

Derby County
Money Line
W 0-1 vs Preston North End+160
T 1-1 vs Coventry City+195
L 1-3 at Blackburn+420
L 0-2 at Bournemouth+505
W 0-2 vs Barnsley+105
Swansea City
Money Line
W 1-0 at Millwall+280
W 4-0 at Cardiff City+235
T 0-0 vs Birmingham City-110
L 5-1 vs Fulham+450
W 1-3 vs Coventry City+170

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.7%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
5.0%
 Open Line5DimesBovadaBetOnlineGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+265+273+270+240+260+240+273+279.8
Swansea City+105+115+105+102+105+102+115+119.1
Draw+230+240+215+235+235+235+240+256.8
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+285---+250+270+270+279.8
Swansea City+110----110+105+105+119.1
Draw+215---+215+240+240+256.8

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Swansea City: 30.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 40.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Derby County ML moved from +279 to +271
Swansea City ML moved from +116 to +107

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Swansea City: 40.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 40.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Derby County ML moved from +285 to +265
No Steam Moves On Swansea City ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.0%
 Open Line5DimesBovadaBetOnlineGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2¼-105o2-149o2¼-110o2¼-111-o2¼-111o2-149o2¼+100
Underu2¼-115u2+134u2¼-110u2¼-109-u2¼-109u2¼-109u2¼+100
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2¼+100
Under-----u2¼+100

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes46.7%
 
No53.3%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 07.65%
Exactly 225.27%
Exactly 413.91%
Exactly 63.06%
Exactly 80.36%
 
Exactly 119.67%
Exactly 321.65%
Exactly 57.15%
Exactly 71.13%
Exactly 90.10%
Exact Goals Scored - Derby County
Exactly 043.27%
Exactly 136.25%
Exactly 215.18%
Exactly 34.24%
Exactly 40.89%
Exactly 50.15%
Exact Goals Scored - Swansea City
Exactly 017.68%
Exactly 130.64%
Exactly 226.54%
Exactly 315.33%
Exactly 46.64%
Exactly 52.30%
Exactly 60.66%
Exactly 70.16%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 030.42%
Exactly 221.54%
Exactly 42.54%
Exactly 60.12%
 
Exactly 136.20%
Exactly 38.55%
Exactly 50.61%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Derby County
Exactly 067.85%
Exactly 126.32%
Exactly 25.10%
Exactly 30.66%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Swansea City
Exactly 044.83%
Exactly 135.97%
Exactly 214.43%
Exactly 33.86%
Exactly 40.77%
Exactly 50.12%

Alternate Props

Spread

Derby County
Wins by 2+ goals5.53%
Wins by 3+ goals1.29%
Wins by 4+ goals0.23%
Swansea City
Wins by 2+ goals33.06%
Wins by 3+ goals14.91%
Wins by 4+ goals5.49%
Wins by 5+ goals1.68%
Wins by 6+ goals0.42%

Exact Winning Margin

Derby County
Swansea City
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
Derby County
Wins by 1 goal12.33%
Wins by 2 goals4.24%
Wins by 3 goals1.06%
Wins by 4 goals0.20%
Swansea City
Wins by 1 goal25.51%
Wins by 2 goals18.15%
Wins by 3 goals9.42%
Wins by 4 goals3.81%
Wins by 5 goals1.26%
Wins by 6 goals0.35%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.592.35%7.65%
1.572.68%27.32%
2.547.41%52.59%
3.525.76%74.24%
4.511.84%88.16%
5.54.69%95.31%
6.51.62%98.38%

Total Goals Derby County Over/Under

OverUnder
0.556.73%43.27%
1.520.48%79.52%
2.55.30%94.70%
3.51.06%98.94%

Total Goals Swansea City Over/Under

OverUnder
0.582.32%17.68%
1.551.68%48.32%
2.525.14%74.86%
3.59.81%90.19%
4.53.17%96.83%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.569.58%30.42%
1.533.38%66.62%
2.511.84%88.16%
3.53.29%96.71%

Score Props

Correct Score

Derby County
Swansea City
Score012345
0
7.65%
13.26%
11.48%
6.63%
2.87%
1.00%
1
6.41%
11.11%
9.62%
5.56%
2.41%
0.83%
2
2.68%
4.65%
4.03%
2.33%
1.01%
0.35%
3
0.75%
1.30%
1.13%
0.65%
0.28%
0.10%
4
0.16%
0.27%
0.24%
0.14%
0.06%
0.02%
Derby County
1-06.41%
2-02.68%
2-14.65%
3-00.75%
3-11.30%
3-21.13%
4-00.16%
4-10.27%
4-20.24%
4-30.14%
Draw
0-07.65%
1-111.11%
2-24.03%
3-30.65%
Swansea City
0-113.26%
0-211.48%
1-29.62%
0-36.63%
1-35.56%
2-32.33%
0-42.87%
1-42.41%
2-41.01%
3-40.28%
0-51.00%
1-50.83%
2-50.35%

Correct Score - First Half

Derby County
Swansea City
Score01234
0
30.42%
24.40%
9.79%
2.62%
0.52%
1
11.80%
9.47%
3.80%
1.02%
0.20%
2
2.29%
1.84%
0.74%
0.20%
0.04%
3
0.30%
0.24%
0.10%
0.03%
0.01%
Derby County
1-011.80%
2-02.29%
2-11.84%
3-00.30%
3-10.24%
Draw
0-030.42%
1-19.47%
2-20.74%
Swansea City
0-124.40%
0-29.79%
1-23.80%
0-32.62%
1-31.02%
2-30.20%
0-40.52%
1-40.20%