Derby County at Swansea City

Updated

Derby County

17.9%23.5%58.6%
WinDrawSwansea City Win
0.84Projected Goals 1.73
1Final Score 2

Swansea City

Last 5 Games

Derby County
Money Line
W 0-1 vs Preston North End+160
T 1-1 vs Coventry City+195
L 1-3 at Blackburn+420
L 0-2 at Bournemouth+505
W 0-2 vs Barnsley+105
Swansea City
Money Line
W 1-0 at Millwall+280
W 4-0 at Cardiff City+235
T 0-0 vs Birmingham City-110
L 5-1 vs Fulham+450
W 1-3 vs Coventry City+170

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:2.7%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:5.0%
 Open Line5DimesBovadaBetOnlineGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+265+273+270+240+260+240+273+279.8
Swansea City+105+115+105+102+105+102+115+119.1
Draw+230+240+215+235+235+235+240+256.8
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+285---+250+270+270+279.8
Swansea City+110----110+105+105+119.1
Draw+215---+215+240+240+256.8

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Swansea City: 30.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 40.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 10.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Derby County ML moved from +279 to +271
Swansea City ML moved from +116 to +107

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Swansea City: 40.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 40.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 0.0%
Swansea City: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Derby County ML moved from +285 to +265
No Steam Moves On Swansea City ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.0%
 Open Line5DimesBovadaBetOnlineGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2¼-105o2-149o2¼-110o2¼-111-o2¼-111o2-149o2¼+100
Underu2¼-115u2+134u2¼-110u2¼-109-u2¼-109u2¼-109u2¼+100
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2¼+100
Under-----u2¼+100

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes46.7%
 
No53.3%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 07.65%
Exactly 225.27%
Exactly 413.91%
Exactly 63.06%
Exactly 80.36%
 
Exactly 119.67%
Exactly 321.65%
Exactly 57.15%
Exactly 71.13%
Exactly 90.10%
Exact Goals Scored - Derby County
Exactly 043.27%
Exactly 136.25%
Exactly 215.18%
Exactly 34.24%
Exactly 40.89%
Exactly 50.15%
Exact Goals Scored - Swansea City
Exactly 017.68%
Exactly 130.64%
Exactly 226.54%
Exactly 315.33%
Exactly 46.64%
Exactly 52.30%
Exactly 60.66%
Exactly 70.16%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 030.42%
Exactly 221.54%
Exactly 42.54%
Exactly 60.12%
 
Exactly 136.20%
Exactly 38.55%
Exactly 50.61%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Derby County
Exactly 067.85%
Exactly 126.32%
Exactly 25.10%
Exactly 30.66%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Swansea City
Exactly 044.83%
Exactly 135.97%
Exactly 214.43%
Exactly 33.86%
Exactly 40.77%
Exactly 50.12%

Alternate Props

Spread

Derby County
Wins by 2+ goals5.53%
Wins by 3+ goals1.29%
Wins by 4+ goals0.23%
Swansea City
Wins by 2+ goals33.06%
Wins by 3+ goals14.91%
Wins by 4+ goals5.49%
Wins by 5+ goals1.68%
Wins by 6+ goals0.42%

Exact Winning Margin

Derby County
Swansea City
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
Derby County
Wins by 1 goal12.33%
Wins by 2 goals4.24%
Wins by 3 goals1.06%
Wins by 4 goals0.20%
Swansea City
Wins by 1 goal25.51%
Wins by 2 goals18.15%
Wins by 3 goals9.42%
Wins by 4 goals3.81%
Wins by 5 goals1.26%
Wins by 6 goals0.35%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.592.35%7.65%
1.572.68%27.32%
2.547.41%52.59%
3.525.76%74.24%
4.511.84%88.16%
5.54.69%95.31%
6.51.62%98.38%

Total Goals Derby County Over/Under

OverUnder
0.556.73%43.27%
1.520.48%79.52%
2.55.30%94.70%
3.51.06%98.94%

Total Goals Swansea City Over/Under

OverUnder
0.582.32%17.68%
1.551.68%48.32%
2.525.14%74.86%
3.59.81%90.19%
4.53.17%96.83%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.569.58%30.42%
1.533.38%66.62%
2.511.84%88.16%
3.53.29%96.71%

Score Props

Correct Score

Derby County
Swansea City
Score012345
0
7.65%
13.26%
11.48%
6.63%
2.87%
1.00%
1
6.41%
11.11%
9.62%
5.56%
2.41%
0.83%
2
2.68%
4.65%
4.03%
2.33%
1.01%
0.35%
3
0.75%
1.30%
1.13%
0.65%
0.28%
0.10%
4
0.16%
0.27%
0.24%
0.14%
0.06%
0.02%
Derby County
1-06.41%
2-02.68%
2-14.65%
3-00.75%
3-11.30%
3-21.13%
4-00.16%
4-10.27%
4-20.24%
4-30.14%
Draw
0-07.65%
1-111.11%
2-24.03%
3-30.65%
Swansea City
0-113.26%
0-211.48%
1-29.62%
0-36.63%
1-35.56%
2-32.33%
0-42.87%
1-42.41%
2-41.01%
3-40.28%
0-51.00%
1-50.83%
2-50.35%

Correct Score - First Half

Derby County
Swansea City
Score01234
0
30.42%
24.40%
9.79%
2.62%
0.52%
1
11.80%
9.47%
3.80%
1.02%
0.20%
2
2.29%
1.84%
0.74%
0.20%
0.04%
3
0.30%
0.24%
0.10%
0.03%
0.01%
Derby County
1-011.80%
2-02.29%
2-11.84%
3-00.30%
3-10.24%
Draw
0-030.42%
1-19.47%
2-20.74%
Swansea City
0-124.40%
0-29.79%
1-23.80%
0-32.62%
1-31.02%
2-30.20%
0-40.52%
1-40.20%
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