English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Apr 3, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Everton
Liverpool		15.4%
64.4%		20.2%
+650
-205
+650
-220
0
1		-0.42951-0.41923-0.44012
Aston Villa
Brighton and Hove Albion		38.4%
34.0%		27.6%
+211
+135
+205
+130
3
0		-1.16299-1.16235-0.95667
Crystal Palace
Southampton		25.8%
48.3%		25.8%
-165
+475
-165
+470
1
1		-1.46915-1.44274-1.35325
Leicester City
Manchester City		13.9%
66.6%		19.4%
+1300
-480
+1275
-560
0
2		-0.21452-0.20949-0.40596
Fulham
Arsenal		12.6%
67.8%		19.6%
+665
-202
+650
-200
1
2		-0.43645-0.44013-0.38889
West Ham United
Wolverhampton		31.2%
41.5%		27.3%
+225
+140
+230
+145
0
1		-0.90887-0.91479-0.88015
Manchester United
Leicester City		42.2%
31.1%		26.6%
-123
+352
-115
+335
3
0		-0.62899-0.65666-0.86171
Chelsea
Arsenal		38.8%
34.2%		27.0%
+440
-138
+440
-135
0
1		-0.57969-0.58738-1.07236
Tottenham
Fulham		63.2%
15.9%		20.8%
+303
-115
+305
-110
0
2		-0.66002-0.67023-1.83772
Wolverhampton
Southampton		33.9%
38.6%		27.5%
+105
+293
+105
+290
2
1		-0.74784-0.75547-1.08167
West Ham United
Everton		28.4%
45.8%		25.8%
+282
+115
+285
+115
1
1		-1.21268-1.19985-1.35662
Brighton and Hove Albion
Manchester City		6.3%
80.5%		13.2%
+330
-123
+310
-125
2
2		-1.43864-1.43460-2.02776
Newcastle United
West Ham United		23.2%
52.4%		24.4%
+120
+238
+120
+235
1
0		-0.82237-0.82650-1.46102
Arsenal
Manchester United		22.5%
53.5%		24.0%
-130
+420
-125
+420
1
1		-1.32576-1.28580-1.42795
Leicester City
Chelsea		28.8%
45.6%		25.5%
+1200
-425
+1200
-450
0
1		-0.24019-0.23793-0.78507
Bournemouth
Tottenham		9.9%
73.8%		16.2%
+140
+185
+135
+180
2
2		-1.36528-1.37980-1.81788
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks42-1-1 (0.625)0-0.81904 
Sportsbooks42-1-1 (0.625)0-0.80845 
DRatings43-0-1 (0.875)0-0.78900
0.03004
0.01945

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.