English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Crystal Palace
Liverpool		9.4%
73.7%		16.8%
+595
-270
+650
-285
1
1		-1.85886-1.85202-1.78112
Manchester City
Fulham		81.0%
6.1%		12.9%
-192
+520
-180
+525
2
0		-0.45037-0.46660-0.21104
Leicester City
Bournemouth		66.3%
13.8%		20.0%
+735
-280
+780
-320
0
2		-0.33544-0.31737-1.98282
Brighton and Hove Albion
Tottenham		16.6%
62.2%		21.2%
-111
+275
-115
+340
4
1		-0.67603-0.61508-1.79354
Arsenal
Southampton		43.8%
30.0%		26.2%
-415
+1150
-417
+1050
2
1		-0.24930-0.26125-0.82629
Aston Villa
Manchester United		14.5%
66.5%		19.0%
-148
+375
-155
+400
0
2		-1.59209-1.64393-0.40770
Everton
Newcastle United		48.5%
26.0%		25.5%
+1050
-385
+1150
-360
1
0		-2.47409-2.53970-0.72449
Bournemouth
Manchester City		3.9%
86.4%		9.7%
+755
-290
+785
-300
1
3		-0.33014-0.32392-0.14676
Wolverhampton
Crystal Palace		40.3%
30.8%		28.9%
+223
+135
+209
+135
2
4		-0.87745-0.90098-1.17866
Liverpool
Brighton and Hove Albion		67.0%
13.2%		19.8%
+196
+122
+195
+120
2
3		-0.83211-0.83409-2.02261
Newcastle United
Arsenal		15.8%
63.1%		21.1%
+315
-110
+310
-110
0
1		-0.67417-0.67704-0.46061
Southampton
Everton		28.2%
46.6%		25.2%
+660
-235
+685
-250
0
2		-0.38904-0.38322-0.76271
Manchester United
Chelsea		38.0%
35.3%		26.7%
+460
-173
+600
-190
0
1		-0.48773-0.42920-1.04185
Tottenham
Aston Villa		47.5%
27.9%		24.6%
+1000
-375
+950
-330
0
2		-0.26242-0.28109-1.27705
Arsenal
Liverpool		19.2%
57.9%		22.9%
+225
+124
+215
+125
2
2		-1.31234-1.31983-1.47451
West Ham United
Manchester United		15.1%
65.2%		19.7%
+265
+105
+280
+100
2
0		-1.32629-1.37145-1.88743
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.