English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Dec 15, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Newcastle United
Sunderland		53.1%
21.2%		25.7%
+115
+257
+125
+245
0
1		-1.30708-1.27500-1.55315
Aston Villa
West Ham United		31.8%
42.1%		26.1%
+122
+240
+120
+275
3
2		-0.83135-0.79536-1.14630
Manchester City
Crystal Palace		75.3%
8.6%		16.1%
-115
+320
-120
+320
3
0		-0.66054-0.64219-0.28317
Wolverhampton
Arsenal		24.3%
50.0%		25.7%
+2200
-800
+2300
-840
1
2		-0.15315-0.15496-0.69295
Fulham
Burnley		26.2%
45.8%		28.0%
-103
+305
+100
+295
3
2		-0.71156-0.73934-1.33891
Brighton and Hove Albion
Liverpool		9.6%
73.7%		16.7%
+355
-133
+350
-133
0
2		-0.58789-0.59753-0.30560
Everton
Chelsea		22.1%
54.9%		22.9%
+410
-140
+390
-136
0
2		-0.56982-0.59113-0.59957
Manchester United
Wolverhampton		54.5%
21.5%		23.9%
-155
+457
-160
+420
4
1		-0.52579-0.52707-0.60635
Crystal Palace
Fulham		39.5%
30.9%		29.6%
+190
+155
+180
+158
2
1		-1.09874-1.07455-0.92826
West Ham United
Brighton and Hove Albion		39.2%
32.7%		28.1%
+450
-163
+440
-170
1
1		-1.49219-1.51386-1.27065
Liverpool
Leeds United		67.6%
13.2%		19.1%
-127
+347
-135
+355
3
3		-1.41321-1.43906-1.65444
Sunderland
Manchester City		2.8%
88.7%		8.4%
+1025
-377
+990
-390
0
3		-0.27016-0.27123-0.11979
Burnley
Newcastle United		32.3%
38.8%		28.9%
+880
-315
+860
-310
1
2		-0.31009-0.31467-0.94714
Chelsea
Bournemouth		71.0%
11.5%		17.5%
+112
+235
+110
+230
0
0		-1.38147-1.38629-1.74446
Arsenal
Aston Villa		44.6%
29.4%		25.9%
-107
+335
-112
+335
1
2		-1.50135-1.51159-1.22295
West Ham United
Manchester United		15.1%
65.2%		19.7%
+650
-245
+650
-250
1
1		-1.68378-1.66400-1.62547
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.