Manchester City at Aston Villa

Updated

Manchester City

72.3%16.7%11.0%
Manchester City WinDrawWin
2.40Projected Goals 0.83
1Final Score 2

Aston Villa

Last 5 Games

Manchester City
Money Line
L 2-1 vs Manchester United-195
T 2-2 at Crystal Palace-135
L 0-2 at Liverpool+255
L 4-0 vs Tottenham-245
L 1-2 at Brighton and Hove Albion-130
Aston Villa
Money Line
W 0-1 vs Southampton-320
L 0-3 at Chelsea+350
T 2-2 vs Crystal Palace-135
L 0-2 at Liverpool+600
L 1-4 at Tottenham+260

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.3%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.7%
 Open Line5DimesBovadaBetOnlineGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Manchester City-110-+120+120-+120+120-
Aston Villa+260-+210+222-+222+222-
Draw+300-+270+272-+272+272-
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Manchester City+110-+115-+100+110+115-
Aston Villa+230-+215-+220+230+230-
Draw+270-+270-+265+270+270-

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Manchester City: 40.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Manchester City: 50.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Manchester City: 0.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Manchester City ML moved from +117 to +109
Aston Villa ML moved from +230 to +222

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Manchester City: 50.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Manchester City: 50.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Manchester City: 0.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Manchester City ML
Aston Villa ML moved from +221 to +215

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.4%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
1.2%
 Open Line5DimesBovadaBetOnlineGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3-118-o3+100o3+104-o3+104o3+104-
Underu3-102-u3-120u3-120-u3-120u3-120-
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3-105o3-115o3+100-o3-120o3-110o3+100-
Underu3-115u3-105u3-120-u3-110u3-110u3-105-

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

The Over moved from o3+100 to o3-120
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes51.1%
 
No48.9%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 03.97%
Exactly 220.66%
Exactly 417.93%
Exactly 66.22%
Exactly 81.16%
Exactly 100.13%
 
Exactly 112.81%
Exactly 322.22%
Exactly 511.57%
Exactly 72.87%
Exactly 90.41%
Exact Goals Scored - Manchester City
Exactly 09.06%
Exactly 121.76%
Exactly 226.12%
Exactly 320.91%
Exactly 412.55%
Exactly 56.03%
Exactly 62.41%
Exactly 70.83%
Exactly 80.25%
Exact Goals Scored - Aston Villa
Exactly 043.79%
Exactly 136.16%
Exactly 214.93%
Exactly 34.11%
Exactly 40.85%
Exactly 50.14%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 022.45%
Exactly 225.05%
Exactly 44.66%
Exactly 60.35%
 
Exactly 133.54%
Exactly 312.48%
Exactly 51.39%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Manchester City
Exactly 032.90%
Exactly 136.58%
Exactly 220.33%
Exactly 37.53%
Exactly 42.09%
Exactly 50.47%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Aston Villa
Exactly 068.22%
Exactly 126.09%
Exactly 24.99%
Exactly 30.64%

Alternate Props

Spread

Manchester City
Wins by 2+ goals49.50%
Wins by 3+ goals28.36%
Wins by 4+ goals13.67%
Wins by 5+ goals5.60%
Aston Villa
Wins by 2+ goals3.21%
Wins by 3+ goals0.71%

Exact Winning Margin

Manchester City
Aston Villa
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
Manchester City
Wins by 1 goal22.67%
Wins by 2 goals21.14%
Wins by 3 goals14.70%
Wins by 4 goals8.07%
Wins by 5 goals3.64%
Aston Villa
Wins by 1 goal7.80%
Wins by 2 goals2.50%
Wins by 3 goals0.59%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.596.03%3.97%
1.583.23%16.77%
2.562.56%37.44%
3.540.34%59.66%
4.522.42%77.58%
5.510.85%89.15%
6.54.63%95.37%
7.51.76%98.24%

Total Goals Manchester City Over/Under

OverUnder
0.590.94%9.06%
1.569.17%30.83%
2.543.05%56.95%
3.522.15%77.85%
4.59.60%90.40%
5.53.57%96.43%
6.51.16%98.84%

Total Goals Aston Villa Over/Under

OverUnder
0.556.21%43.79%
1.520.05%79.95%
2.55.12%94.88%
3.51.01%98.99%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.577.55%22.45%
1.544.02%55.98%
2.518.96%81.04%
3.56.49%93.51%
4.51.83%98.17%

Score Props

Correct Score

Manchester City
Aston Villa
Score0123
0
3.97%
3.28%
1.35%
0.37%
1
9.53%
7.87%
3.25%
0.89%
2
11.44%
9.45%
3.90%
1.07%
3
9.15%
7.56%
3.12%
0.86%
4
5.49%
4.54%
1.87%
0.52%
5
2.64%
2.18%
0.90%
0.25%
Manchester City
1-09.53%
2-011.44%
2-19.45%
3-09.15%
3-17.56%
3-23.12%
4-05.49%
4-14.54%
4-21.87%
4-30.52%
5-02.64%
5-12.18%
5-20.90%
5-30.25%
Draw
0-03.97%
1-17.87%
2-23.90%
3-30.86%
4-40.11%
Aston Villa
0-13.28%
0-21.35%
1-23.25%
0-30.37%
1-30.89%
2-31.07%

Correct Score - First Half

Manchester City
Aston Villa
Score0123
0
22.45%
8.58%
1.64%
0.21%
1
24.95%
9.54%
1.82%
0.23%
2
13.87%
5.30%
1.01%
0.13%
3
5.14%
1.96%
0.38%
0.05%
4
1.43%
0.55%
0.10%
0.01%
5
0.32%
0.12%
0.02%
0.00%
Manchester City
1-024.95%
2-013.87%
2-15.30%
3-05.14%
3-11.96%
3-20.38%
4-01.43%
4-10.55%
4-20.10%
5-00.32%
5-10.12%
Draw
0-022.45%
1-19.54%
2-21.01%
Aston Villa
0-18.58%
0-21.64%
1-21.82%
0-30.21%
1-30.23%
2-30.13%