English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Jan 4, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Liverpool
Aston Villa		62.6%
16.8%		20.6%
-129
+290
-128
+280
3
3		-1.56767-1.56715-1.57867
Arsenal
Manchester United		22.5%
53.5%		24.0%
-330
+825
-340
+860
1
0		-0.29600-0.28696-1.49290
Crystal Palace
Wolverhampton		24.2%
49.0%		26.8%
+128
+223
+125
+227
3
1		-0.85753-0.84239-1.41762
Brighton and Hove Albion
Newcastle United		34.8%
36.0%		29.2%
+415
-167
+400
-170
1
1		-1.59623-1.60589-1.23248
Burnley
Tottenham		15.0%
64.5%		20.5%
+750
-322
+680
-310
1
2		-0.30441-0.32294-0.43785
Sheffield United
Everton		18.9%
57.2%		23.9%
+615
-232
+634
-240
0
1		-0.39254-0.38396-0.55923
Manchester City
Fulham		81.0%
6.1%		12.9%
-460
+1175
-457
+1250
4
0		-0.22936-0.23460-0.21104
Manchester United
Crystal Palace		63.3%
15.4%		21.3%
+252
+101
+260
+105
0
4		-0.73230-0.73961-1.87308
Tottenham
Liverpool		20.7%
56.6%		22.7%
+515
-230
+515
-245
2
4		-0.39395-0.38505-0.56966
Aston Villa
Brighton and Hove Albion		38.4%
34.0%		27.6%
+168
+150
+165
+155
0
1		-0.94863-0.96362-1.08028
West Ham United
Chelsea		18.6%
60.1%		21.3%
+475
-195
+450
-185
0
5		-0.44830-0.46536-0.50951
Wolverhampton
Manchester City		8.9%
75.4%		15.8%
+2250
-1000
+2300
-1250
1
5		-0.12347-0.12501-0.28271
Newcastle United
Burnley		31.2%
40.0%		28.8%
-102
+246
+100
+233
4
1		-0.71486-0.73639-1.16411
Bournemouth
Arsenal		10.9%
71.2%		17.9%
+1225
-455
+1171
-500
0
3		-0.23322-0.22666-0.33907
Tottenham
Chelsea		28.9%
46.2%		24.9%
+165
+145
+165
+140
0
2		-0.93100-0.91854-0.77260
Arsenal
Tottenham		30.8%
42.8%		26.4%
-132
+335
-135
+340
3
2		-0.58972-0.60008-1.17775
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.