English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Burnley
Wolverhampton		22.5%
51.3%		26.2%
+320
-104
+320
-110
0
1		-0.69537-0.69473-0.66719
Wolverhampton
Fulham		49.8%
23.7%		26.4%
+228
+142
+205
+143
2
3		-0.90202-0.93123-1.43818
Manchester United
Everton		51.5%
24.3%		24.3%
+165
+171
+165
+165
3
0		-1.00613-1.02223-0.66448
Aston Villa
Tottenham		21.1%
56.7%		22.2%
+160
+168
+161
+150
2
1		-0.96956-1.00133-1.55580
Chelsea
Newcastle United		62.4%
16.8%		20.7%
+175
+173
+157
+165
1
4		-1.01200-1.02160-1.78165
West Ham United
Burnley		42.1%
30.3%		27.7%
+120
+250
+115
+240
2
1		-0.81015-0.81340-0.86614
Liverpool
Manchester City		23.4%
52.0%		24.6%
+367
-130
+340
-140
1
1		-1.47046-1.50090-1.40251
Manchester City
Chelsea		54.5%
22.2%		23.3%
-130
+396
-135
+375
4
4		-1.40295-1.41116-1.45805
Sheffield United
Brighton and Hove Albion		27.7%
43.2%		29.1%
+1032
-365
+1000
-400
1
1		-1.94330-1.89565-1.23512
Fulham
Aston Villa		19.6%
57.5%		22.9%
+470
-150
+440
-160
1
3		-0.51879-0.52902-0.55342
Newcastle United
Bournemouth		41.3%
30.7%		28.0%
-105
+350
-108
+305
0
2		-1.48523-1.43100-1.18016
Everton
Crystal Palace		44.6%
28.2%		27.2%
+215
+167
+205
+155
3
2		-1.14709-1.15195-0.80829
Burnley
Arsenal		16.2%
61.4%		22.4%
+1555
-485
+1500
-515
1
3		-0.20663-0.21834-0.48770
Tottenham
Wolverhampton		43.9%
29.6%		26.5%
+130
+214
+125
+210
1
2		-1.16395-1.17157-1.21686
Chelsea
Tottenham		37.1%
36.4%		26.5%
+201
+135
+205
+130
4
1		-1.12958-1.15255-0.99266
Arsenal
Newcastle United		54.6%
21.3%		24.1%
+169
+182
+173
+170
0
1		-1.05702-1.03665-1.54773
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.78973 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.79018 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.02318
-0.23346
-0.23300

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.