English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Wolverhampton
Newcastle United		44.0%
28.7%		27.3%
+360
-137
+335
-138
0
3		-0.58107-0.59281-1.24956
Brighton and Hove Albion
Fulham		40.4%
30.7%		28.9%
+178
+157
+175
+155
0
3		-0.97785-0.97992-1.18136
Sheffield United
Wolverhampton		21.2%
52.7%		26.1%
+640
-215
+577
-210
0
1		-0.41641-0.43573-0.64095
Newcastle United
Arsenal		15.8%
63.1%		21.1%
+765
-280
+800
-315
1
4		-0.33289-0.31970-0.46061
Manchester City
Bournemouth		83.1%
5.2%		11.6%
-210
+605
-241
+625
1
0		-0.40097-0.38519-0.18494
Everton
Brighton and Hove Albion		44.4%
28.8%		26.9%
+330
-120
+305
-120
1
1		-1.41391-1.40862-1.31435
Burnley
Crystal Palace		29.5%
41.1%		29.3%
+307
+100
+310
+100
0
3		-0.72249-0.73045-0.88834
Fulham
Manchester United		7.8%
77.4%		14.7%
+435
-155
+410
-160
2
1		-1.69887-1.67494-2.54529
Crystal Palace
Everton		21.8%
53.5%		24.8%
+407
-121
+390
-125
1
1		-1.28280-1.28667-1.39606
Brighton and Hove Albion
Sheffield United		34.9%
34.2%		30.9%
-152
+395
-150
+375
5
0		-0.53749-0.55563-1.05274
Chelsea
Manchester City		16.4%
63.2%		20.4%
+750
-305
+790
-315
1
1		-1.90906-1.89672-1.59111
Bournemouth
Newcastle United		24.0%
50.2%		25.8%
+267
-102
+245
-105
2
2		-1.41338-1.44464-1.35460
Arsenal
Burnley		53.0%
21.6%		25.3%
-340
+930
-325
+850
5
0		-0.29233-0.30835-0.63435
Wolverhampton
Tottenham		22.8%
53.0%		24.2%
+490
-195
+435
-180
2
1		-1.80503-1.71658-1.47714
Aston Villa
Fulham		48.6%
25.9%		25.6%
+130
+205
+133
+194
2
1		-0.86320-0.88826-0.72216
Chelsea
Crystal Palace		58.4%
18.8%		22.8%
-140
+412
-140
+425
3
1		-0.56724-0.56941-0.53804
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.