English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester United
Aston Villa		58.2%
19.8%		22.0%
+214
+116
+220
+112
2
1		-1.17886-1.20614-0.54197
Arsenal
West Ham United		43.1%
30.2%		26.7%
-185
+540
-200
+550
6
0		-0.46426-0.45215-0.84218
Brighton and Hove Albion
Tottenham		16.6%
62.2%		21.2%
+318
-135
+310
-134
1
2		-0.58960-0.59793-0.47493
Burnley
Liverpool		8.6%
75.2%		16.1%
+1400
-600
+1500
-655
1
3		-0.18848-0.17953-0.28477
Everton
Manchester City		10.1%
73.7%		16.2%
+1200
-435
+1210
-520
0
2		-0.23447-0.22609-0.30453
Liverpool
Arsenal		49.0%
25.4%		25.6%
+226
+120
+225
+120
1
3		-0.81604-0.82257-1.36944
Wolverhampton
Chelsea		19.5%
57.9%		22.5%
+505
-178
+485
-185
4
2		-1.82275-1.80551-1.63260
West Ham United
Manchester United		15.1%
65.2%		19.7%
+480
-174
+460
-180
0
3		-0.48331-0.48456-0.42834
Aston Villa
Sheffield United		42.6%
29.7%		27.6%
-160
+440
-165
+425
5
0		-0.51298-0.52106-0.85278
Fulham
Burnley		26.2%
45.8%		28.0%
+152
+197
+155
+190
2
2		-1.24050-1.22237-1.27400
Crystal Palace
Brighton and Hove Albion		31.1%
39.5%		29.4%
+420
-136
+410
-142
1
4		-0.58243-0.57811-0.92983
Tottenham
Everton		40.7%
33.0%		26.3%
+122
+215
+115
+215
2
2		-1.35573-1.36583-1.33644
Manchester United
Wolverhampton		54.5%
21.5%		23.9%
+140
+200
+142
+190
4
3		-0.90666-0.93057-0.60635
Bournemouth
West Ham United		16.4%
62.2%		21.4%
+184
+147
+180
+145
1
1		-1.31509-1.32309-1.53982
Chelsea
Liverpool		24.1%
51.7%		24.1%
+390
-155
+400
-165
1
4		-0.53285-0.51303-0.65898
Burnley
Manchester City		5.7%
81.5%		12.7%
+1900
-800
+2350
-1120
1
3		-0.14481-0.13031-0.20416
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.