English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Newcastle United
Aston Villa		24.1%
51.5%		24.4%
+310
-115
+295
-120
3
1		-1.43578-1.42122-1.42196
Sheffield United
Crystal Palace		28.0%
42.4%		29.6%
+500
-164
+500
-168
2
3		-0.51029-0.51266-0.85802
Everton
Fulham		54.5%
21.3%		24.2%
+257
+125
+245
+125
0
0		-1.22112-1.21980-1.41791
Wolverhampton
Brighton and Hove Albion		40.0%
31.3%		28.8%
+400
-151
+425
-160
0
0		-1.49219-1.48726-1.24653
Liverpool
Bournemouth		77.3%
7.9%		14.9%
-142
+348
-145
+350
4
0		-0.56481-0.56502-0.25808
West Ham United
Sheffield United		43.5%
28.7%		27.9%
+164
+184
+159
+185
2
2		-1.24848-1.22237-1.27791
Crystal Palace
Arsenal		17.6%
59.3%		23.1%
+1135
-375
+986
-370
0
5		-0.26638-0.28827-0.52339
Tottenham
Manchester United		24.1%
52.0%		23.8%
+246
+101
+235
+104
2
2		-1.42787-1.41473-1.43544
Aston Villa
Everton		27.6%
47.4%		25.0%
+175
+158
+167
+165
0
0		-1.29935-1.34014-1.38593
Manchester City
Newcastle United		78.4%
7.5%		14.1%
-150
+410
-152
+410
3
2		-0.54335-0.54223-0.24378
Fulham
Chelsea		9.7%
74.2%		16.1%
+445
-155
+460
-170
0
1		-0.52685-0.50258-0.29874
Manchester United
Liverpool		28.6%
45.3%		26.1%
+715
-295
+800
-320
0
0		-1.83427-1.85828-1.34239
Wolverhampton
West Ham United		33.3%
38.8%		27.9%
+318
-105
+320
-105
0
3		-0.69784-0.69673-0.94776
Brighton and Hove Albion
Arsenal		17.9%
59.0%		23.0%
+600
-215
+620
-225
0
2		-0.41059-0.40650-0.52689
Everton
Burnley		47.1%
26.4%		26.5%
+124
+244
+120
+235
2
0		-0.82906-0.83128-0.75237
Crystal Palace
Manchester City		6.3%
80.3%		13.4%
+1800
-575
+1300
-560
2
2		-2.09411-2.10111-2.00835
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.