English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Crystal Palace
Leeds United		31.3%
40.1%		28.6%
+285
+111
+268
+105
5
1		-1.36728-1.35112-1.16174
Manchester City
Southampton		71.7%
11.3%		16.9%
-389
+1240
-425
+1150
4
1		-0.25364-0.25607-0.33246
Bournemouth
Leicester City		10.0%
73.1%		16.9%
+286
+110
+275
+101
1
0		-1.37141-1.36211-2.30579
West Ham United
Fulham		49.3%
24.9%		25.9%
+159
+199
+155
+192
1
0		-0.97678-0.97753-0.70800
Brighton and Hove Albion
Tottenham		16.6%
62.2%		21.2%
+160
+185
+155
+171
1
2		-1.06831-1.03891-0.47493
Chelsea
Wolverhampton		48.9%
25.9%		25.2%
-126
+400
-130
+388
0
1		-1.63404-1.62404-1.35127
Everton
Manchester United		18.1%
60.4%		21.5%
+510
-169
+520
-188
0
2		-0.48926-0.46954-0.50460
Newcastle United
West Ham United		23.2%
52.4%		24.4%
+129
+258
+123
+250
5
1		-0.84833-0.83850-1.46102
Liverpool
Chelsea		42.5%
31.2%		26.3%
+251
+122
+250
+110
0
0		-1.28790-1.29931-1.33617
Brighton and Hove Albion
Bournemouth		44.6%
27.7%		27.6%
-175
+480
-185
+490
2
0		-0.48740-0.47950-0.80721
Aston Villa
Leicester City		21.0%
56.3%		22.7%
+169
+175
+170
+165
2
1		-1.00961-1.03846-1.56122
Tottenham
Everton		40.7%
33.0%		26.3%
+111
+291
+113
+270
1
1		-1.25562-1.25709-1.33644
Manchester United
Newcastle United		67.2%
13.7%		19.1%
+215
+137
+211
+130
0
2		-0.87993-0.87409-1.99136
Southampton
West Ham United		32.3%
41.3%		26.4%
+419
-129
+375
-130
0
1		-0.59633-0.61554-0.88489
Aston Villa
Chelsea		17.9%
61.5%		20.6%
+508
-157
+500
-165
2
0		-1.82828-1.83898-1.72121
Leeds United
Arsenal		18.0%
59.7%		22.3%
+1009
-362
+1000
-370
1
4		-0.27111-0.28307-0.51664
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.