English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Leicester City
Crystal Palace		53.1%
21.8%		25.0%
+225
+140
+215
+140
1
2		-0.89548-0.92576-1.52234
Liverpool
Manchester City		23.4%
52.0%		24.6%
+424
-150
+425
-160
1
4		-0.53396-0.52853-0.65427
Crystal Palace
Arsenal		17.6%
59.3%		23.1%
+1181
-370
+1100
-380
1
4		-0.26674-0.27965-0.52339
Everton
Chelsea		22.1%
54.9%		22.9%
+735
-208
+700
-210
2
2		-1.48589-1.45998-1.47233
Tottenham
Southampton		46.7%
28.5%		24.8%
-117
+369
-120
+360
3
3		-1.33075-1.33689-1.39542
Bournemouth
Aston Villa		17.1%
61.5%		21.4%
+404
-133
+385
-140
0
3		-0.58600-0.58709-0.48573
Leeds United
Wolverhampton		24.9%
49.2%		25.9%
+235
+140
+220
+140
4
2		-1.23066-1.20397-1.39022
Crystal Palace
Brighton and Hove Albion		31.1%
39.5%		29.4%
+835
-261
+775
-260
0
1		-0.34637-0.37570-0.92983
Wolverhampton
Newcastle United		44.0%
28.7%		27.3%
+505
-156
+495
-160
1
2		-0.52401-0.53108-1.24956
Southampton
Manchester United		14.9%
65.9%		19.2%
+975
-365
+1000
-370
0
0		-1.88335-1.86323-1.64943
Aston Villa
West Ham United		31.8%
42.1%		26.1%
+233
+138
+225
+130
1
1		-1.21288-1.22758-1.34415
Arsenal
Fulham		60.1%
17.2%		22.7%
-233
+685
-230
+680
3
0		-0.39192-0.39869-0.50931
Manchester City
Crystal Palace		75.3%
8.6%		16.1%
-284
+907
-290
+850
1
0		-0.33202-0.34021-0.28317
Chelsea
Leicester City		36.6%
36.2%		27.2%
-105
+320
-114
+325
3
1		-0.68868-0.67017-1.00441
Brighton and Hove Albion
Leeds United		31.9%
39.9%		28.2%
-113
+335
-120
+329
2
2		-1.36995-1.37389-1.26553
Liverpool
Bournemouth		77.3%
7.9%		14.9%
-238
+650
-245
+635
0
1		-2.04353-2.03073-2.54110
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.