English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Aston Villa
Southampton		32.2%
41.8%		25.9%
+195
+168
+175
+165
1
0		-1.10235-1.05205-1.13224
Brighton and Hove Albion
Leicester City		16.6%
61.5%		21.9%
-117
+333
-120
+310
2
2		-1.40621-1.39014-1.52092
Chelsea
Liverpool		24.1%
51.7%		24.1%
+283
+107
+275
-104
0
0		-1.30265-1.34396-1.42205
Tottenham
Manchester City		13.8%
67.4%		18.8%
+545
-195
+600
-209
2
4		-0.43680-0.41006-0.39390
Manchester United
Crystal Palace		63.3%
15.4%		21.3%
-143
+451
-148
+425
1
1		-1.40230-1.40368-1.54693
Arsenal
Tottenham		30.8%
42.8%		26.4%
+124
+246
+120
+230
2
0		-0.82426-0.83400-1.17775
Crystal Palace
Chelsea		13.8%
66.5%		19.7%
+368
-112
+350
-115
0
1		-0.65994-0.66764-0.40857
Fulham
Newcastle United		26.9%
45.8%		27.2%
+622
-202
+590
-210
0
1		-0.42211-0.42442-0.78034
West Ham United
Wolverhampton		31.2%
41.5%		27.3%
+211
+174
+190
+155
0
1		-1.00215-0.97979-0.88015
Liverpool
Brighton and Hove Albion		67.0%
13.2%		19.8%
+137
+214
+126
+200
0
3		-1.15059-1.14022-2.02261
Southampton
Everton		28.2%
46.6%		25.2%
+243
+138
+230
+140
2
1		-1.23922-1.22561-1.26574
Manchester City
Manchester United		48.0%
26.5%		25.4%
-111
+308
-118
+300
1
2		-1.42828-1.43288-1.32618
Leeds United
Aston Villa		27.1%
47.7%		25.1%
+287
+104
+280
-102
1
2		-0.73307-0.72817-0.73925
Chelsea
Fulham		67.4%
13.4%		19.2%
+107
+303
+100
+296
1
2		-1.41219-1.42184-2.00909
Manchester City
Chelsea		50.0%
50.0%		0.0%


1
0
Manchester United
Fulham		71.5%
10.9%		17.6%
-113
+335
-117
+310
2
1		-0.65059-0.66291-0.33543
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.