Liverpool at Aston Villa

Updated

Liverpool

62.6%20.6%16.8%
Liverpool WinDrawWin
2.04Projected Goals 0.96
3Final Score 3

Aston Villa

Last 5 Games

Liverpool
Money Line
W 2-4 vs Tottenham-245
T 2-2 at West Ham United-180
L 0-2 at Everton-260
W 3-1 at Fulham-150
L 1-0 vs Crystal Palace-575
Aston Villa
Money Line
L 0-1 at Brighton and Hove Albion+165
T 2-2 vs Chelsea+105
W 1-3 vs Bournemouth-115
W 2-0 at Arsenal+1050
L 1-4 at Manchester City+1050

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.4%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
4.0%
 Open Line5DimesBovadaBetOnlineGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Liverpool-115--130-129--129-129-
Aston Villa+250-+275+290-+290+290-
Draw+330-+360+363-+363+363-
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Liverpool-140--128--155-130-128-
Aston Villa+290-+270-+260+280+280-
Draw+370-+360-+315+350+360-

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Liverpool: 40.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Liverpool: 30.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Liverpool: 0.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Liverpool ML moved from -119 to -125
Aston Villa ML moved from +280 to +270

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Liverpool: 30.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Liverpool: 30.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Liverpool: 0.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Liverpool ML moved from -140 to -150
Aston Villa ML moved from +290 to +270

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.7%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.2%
 Open Line5DimesBovadaBetOnlineGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3¾+102-o3½-110o3½-106-o3½-106o3½-106-
Underu3¾-122-u3½-110u3½-110-u3½-110u3½-110-
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3½-125o3½-120o3½-120-o3½-120o3½-125o3½-120-
Underu3½+105u3½+100u3½+100-u3½-110u3½+105u3½+105-

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
The Under moved from u3¾-115 to u3½-106

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 20.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes53.6%
 
No46.4%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 04.98%
Exactly 222.41%
Exactly 416.80%
Exactly 65.04%
Exactly 80.81%
 
Exactly 114.94%
Exactly 322.40%
Exactly 510.08%
Exactly 72.16%
Exactly 90.27%
Exact Goals Scored - Liverpool
Exactly 012.95%
Exactly 126.47%
Exactly 227.05%
Exactly 318.43%
Exactly 49.42%
Exactly 53.85%
Exactly 61.31%
Exactly 70.38%
Exact Goals Scored - Aston Villa
Exactly 038.46%
Exactly 136.75%
Exactly 217.56%
Exactly 35.59%
Exactly 41.34%
Exactly 50.26%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 024.94%
Exactly 224.05%
Exactly 43.87%
Exactly 60.25%
 
Exactly 134.63%
Exactly 311.13%
Exactly 51.07%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Liverpool
Exactly 038.81%
Exactly 136.73%
Exactly 217.38%
Exactly 35.48%
Exactly 41.30%
Exactly 50.25%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Aston Villa
Exactly 064.25%
Exactly 128.42%
Exactly 26.29%
Exactly 30.93%
Exactly 40.10%

Alternate Props

Spread

Liverpool
Wins by 2+ goals38.49%
Wins by 3+ goals19.42%
Wins by 4+ goals8.11%
Wins by 5+ goals2.82%
Aston Villa
Wins by 2+ goals5.58%
Wins by 3+ goals1.42%
Wins by 4+ goals0.27%

Exact Winning Margin

Liverpool
Aston Villa
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
Liverpool
Wins by 1 goal23.94%
Wins by 2 goals19.07%
Wins by 3 goals11.31%
Wins by 4 goals5.29%
Wins by 5 goals2.03%
Aston Villa
Wins by 1 goal11.19%
Wins by 2 goals4.16%
Wins by 3 goals1.15%
Wins by 4 goals0.24%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.595.02%4.98%
1.580.08%19.92%
2.557.67%42.33%
3.535.27%64.73%
4.518.47%81.53%
5.58.39%91.61%
6.53.35%96.65%
7.51.19%98.81%

Total Goals Liverpool Over/Under

OverUnder
0.587.05%12.95%
1.560.58%39.42%
2.533.53%66.47%
3.515.09%84.91%
4.55.67%94.33%
5.51.82%98.18%

Total Goals Aston Villa Over/Under

OverUnder
0.561.54%38.46%
1.524.79%75.21%
2.57.23%92.77%
3.51.64%98.36%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.575.06%24.94%
1.540.43%59.57%
2.516.38%83.62%
3.55.25%94.75%
4.51.38%98.62%

Score Props

Correct Score

Liverpool
Aston Villa
Score01234
0
4.98%
4.76%
2.27%
0.72%
0.17%
1
10.18%
9.73%
4.65%
1.48%
0.35%
2
10.41%
9.94%
4.75%
1.51%
0.36%
3
7.09%
6.77%
3.24%
1.03%
0.25%
4
3.62%
3.46%
1.65%
0.53%
0.13%
5
1.48%
1.42%
0.68%
0.22%
0.05%
Liverpool
1-010.18%
2-010.41%
2-19.94%
3-07.09%
3-16.77%
3-23.24%
4-03.62%
4-13.46%
4-21.65%
4-30.53%
5-01.48%
5-11.42%
5-20.68%
5-30.22%
Draw
0-04.98%
1-19.73%
2-24.75%
3-31.03%
4-40.13%
Aston Villa
0-14.76%
0-22.27%
1-24.65%
0-30.72%
1-31.48%
2-31.51%
0-40.17%
1-40.35%
2-40.36%
3-40.25%

Correct Score - First Half

Liverpool
Aston Villa
Score0123
0
24.94%
11.03%
2.44%
0.36%
1
23.60%
10.44%
2.31%
0.34%
2
11.17%
4.94%
1.09%
0.16%
3
3.52%
1.56%
0.34%
0.05%
4
0.83%
0.37%
0.08%
0.01%
5
0.16%
0.07%
0.02%
0.00%
Liverpool
1-023.60%
2-011.17%
2-14.94%
3-03.52%
3-11.56%
3-20.34%
4-00.83%
4-10.37%
5-00.16%
Draw
0-024.94%
1-110.44%
2-21.09%
Aston Villa
0-111.03%
0-22.44%
1-22.31%
0-30.36%
1-30.34%
2-30.16%