English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Fulham
Crystal Palace		24.4%
48.1%		27.5%
+320
-103
+316
-105
0
0		-1.29788-1.29653-1.29244
Arsenal
Everton		38.0%
34.3%		27.7%
-175
+511
-180
+465
1
0		-0.47207-0.48303-0.96851
Chelsea
Bournemouth		71.0%
11.5%		17.5%
-115
+364
-120
+310
0
0		-1.40157-1.42491-1.74446
Manchester City
West Ham United		71.0%
11.6%		17.4%
-166
+579
-175
+475
3
1		-0.45923-0.49394-0.34231
Sheffield United
Tottenham		14.1%
65.5%		20.4%
+955
-344
+850
-360
1
2		-0.27833-0.29336-0.42243
Brighton and Hove Albion
Manchester United		11.4%
70.7%		17.9%
+250
+122
+240
+100
3
1		-1.24206-1.27497-2.17516
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa		26.4%
47.6%		26.1%
+310
-105
+310
-115
1
3		-0.69365-0.67360-0.74280
Liverpool
Wolverhampton		58.8%
18.4%		22.8%
-147
+647
-165
+500
3
1		-0.44276-0.47813-0.53135
Manchester United
Arsenal		44.4%
29.2%		26.3%
+339
-132
+330
-130
1
3		-0.59283-0.62023-1.23032
Wolverhampton
Crystal Palace		40.3%
30.8%		28.9%
+350
-110
+347
-115
2
3		-0.67397-0.66906-1.17866
Aston Villa
Liverpool		12.2%
70.3%		17.5%
+415
-165
+420
-170
0
3		-0.50294-0.50584-0.35253
Newcastle United
Brighton and Hove Albion		29.0%
43.2%		27.7%
+155
+160
+155
+155
1
3		-0.99007-0.97920-0.83935
Tottenham
Burnley		56.2%
20.3%		23.5%
+100
+268
+100
+260
5
2		-0.72414-0.72998-0.57592
Fulham
Manchester City		4.5%
84.7%		10.8%
+1400
-518
+1460
-600
1
5		-0.20904-0.19788-0.16611
Everton
Sheffield United		48.5%
24.9%		26.6%
+137
+215
+135
+226
2
2		-1.25674-1.21133-1.32339
Liverpool
Newcastle United		70.6%
11.5%		17.9%
+208
+120
+210
+120
2
1		-1.15868-1.17025-0.34832
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.93461 
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.94201 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.78720
0.14741
0.15481

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.