English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Aston Villa
Burnley		41.2%
31.4%		27.4%
+125
+230
+120
+221
3
1		-0.83968-0.83510-0.88739
Manchester City
Sheffield United		77.3%
7.4%		15.2%
-500
+1500
-490
+1358
2
1		-0.21282-0.21763-0.25697
West Ham United
Brighton and Hove Albion		39.2%
32.7%		28.1%
+510
-195
+460
-200
3
1		-1.83690-1.77090-0.93647
Fulham
Arsenal		12.6%
67.8%		19.6%
+985
-350
+920
-350
2
2		-1.83465-1.83333-1.62984
Wolverhampton
Everton		29.3%
43.9%		26.7%
+210
+142
+205
+145
1
0		-1.16514-1.14911-1.22642
Tottenham
Bournemouth		66.9%
13.8%		19.3%
+103
+250
+108
+250
2
0		-0.74217-0.76499-0.40133
Arsenal
Crystal Palace		50.7%
23.4%		25.9%
-115
+372
-120
+365
1
0		-0.63904-0.64004-0.67962
Chelsea
West Ham United		51.0%
25.0%		24.0%
+124
+226
+119
+230
1
3		-1.20491-1.23443-1.38729
Everton
Aston Villa		38.3%
34.9%		26.8%
+335
-120
+330
-115
0
4		-0.63741-0.65585-1.05168
Newcastle United
Manchester City		5.5%
82.8%		11.7%
+320
-116
+340
-125
0
1		-0.65339-0.62946-0.18843
Manchester United
Tottenham		42.8%
31.2%		26.0%
+126
+205
+130
+203
0
2		-1.14810-1.13956-1.16363
Brighton and Hove Albion
Wolverhampton		24.7%
48.7%		26.6%
-122
+315
-120
+305
4
1		-0.63248-0.63892-1.39999
Bournemouth
Liverpool		5.8%
81.9%		12.4%
+1250
-480
+1120
-500
1
3		-0.21946-0.22570-0.19981
Wolverhampton
Manchester United		16.0%
63.0%		21.0%
+1100
-380
+1025
-375
0
1		-0.26801-0.28044-0.46137
Liverpool
Chelsea		42.5%
31.2%		26.3%
+120
+212
+120
+210
1
1		-1.38226-1.36857-1.33617
Aston Villa
Newcastle United		42.4%
31.1%		26.5%
+425
-152
+410
-155
1
5		-0.53681-0.54008-1.16812
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.93461 
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.94201 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.78720
0.14741
0.15481

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.