English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Crystal Palace
Sheffield United		34.2%
34.4%		31.4%
+120
+286
+120
+252
1
0		-0.81423-0.83374-1.07256
Fulham
Everton		15.8%
62.9%		21.3%
+235
+135
+235
+130
1
0		-1.23567-1.24026-1.84427
West Ham United
Bournemouth		53.6%
22.0%		24.4%
+163
+171
+165
+172
1
1		-1.28710-1.27054-1.41256
Manchester City
Burnley		76.9%
7.8%		15.2%
-315
+865
-310
+825
3
0		-0.31017-0.31641-0.26246
Liverpool
Southampton		61.7%
17.3%		21.0%
-200
+515
-210
+485
4
4		-1.67004-1.68854-1.56074
Fulham
Manchester United		7.8%
77.4%		14.7%
+505
-205
+495
-195
1
2		-0.43212-0.44501-0.25603
West Ham United
Leicester City		21.8%
54.6%		23.6%
+236
+107
+230
+110
1
2		-0.75362-0.77694-0.60453
Tottenham
Leeds United		54.0%
22.5%		23.4%
+142
+179
+140
+170
4
1		-0.91143-0.91799-0.61598
Bournemouth
Everton		13.7%
66.8%		19.5%
+444
-157
+455
-170
0
1		-0.52295-0.51106-0.40360
Newcastle United
Chelsea		12.2%
70.1%		17.7%
+145
+182
+140
+195
1
1		-1.36059-1.34381-1.73404
Brighton and Hove Albion
Aston Villa		26.9%
47.4%		25.8%
+293
-108
+275
-115
1
2		-0.67283-0.67188-0.74705
Wolverhampton
Arsenal		24.3%
50.0%		25.7%
+920
-330
+825
-320
0
5		-0.28692-0.29930-0.69295
Chelsea
Manchester United		27.9%
47.1%		25.0%
+540
-180
+470
-180
1
4		-0.45820-0.48639-0.75315
Manchester City
Brighton and Hove Albion		75.5%
8.7%		15.8%
-111
+290
-120
+285
1
1		-1.44630-1.45895-1.84491
Leicester City
Newcastle United		57.1%
19.8%		23.2%
+846
-310
+800
-320
0
0		-1.81979-1.81088-1.46300
Chelsea
Manchester City		16.4%
63.2%		20.4%
+500
-166
+450
-165
0
1		-0.49507-0.51547-0.45849
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.93461 
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.94201 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.78720
0.14741
0.15481

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.