English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester United
Crystal Palace		63.3%
15.4%		21.3%
+160
+185
+153
+175
0
1		-1.06436-1.05524-1.87308
Watford
Chelsea		8.0%
77.2%		14.7%
+1618
-525
+1550
-550
1
2		-0.20122-0.20636-0.25829
Newcastle United
Burnley		31.2%
40.0%		28.8%
+205
+156
+210
+138
2
1		-1.13554-1.17616-1.16411
West Ham United
Brighton and Hove Albion		39.2%
32.7%		28.1%
+172
+175
+165
+160
1
3		-1.03086-1.00444-1.11694
Everton
Arsenal		27.2%
46.9%		25.9%
+794
-276
+800
-295
1
5		-0.33306-0.33091-0.75722
Burnley
Aston Villa		24.5%
50.1%		25.3%
+310
+104
+290
+110
1
1		-1.26826-1.26058-1.37326
Leicester City
Chelsea		28.8%
45.6%		25.5%
+676
-225
+700
-245
1
1		-1.63041-1.62770-1.36512
Crystal Palace
Everton		21.8%
53.5%		24.8%
+378
-112
+365
-116
2
3		-0.64226-0.66116-0.62607
Liverpool
Southampton		61.7%
17.3%		21.0%
-212
+591
-235
+600
2
1		-0.40650-0.39794-0.48242
Arsenal
Newcastle United		54.6%
21.3%		24.1%
-111
+330
-120
+330
0
2		-1.47355-1.49246-1.54773
Manchester City
West Ham United		71.0%
11.6%		17.4%
-252
+723
-275
+690
2
2		-1.70722-1.69958-1.74778
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa		26.4%
47.6%		26.1%
+354
-111
+332
-110
1
1		-1.29459-1.29295-1.34504
Brighton and Hove Albion
Leeds United		31.9%
39.9%		28.2%
+170
+170
+163
+170
1
1		-1.29521-1.27801-1.26553
Leicester City
Watford		66.8%
13.2%		20.0%
-142
+415
-139
+390
5
1		-0.56359-0.58835-0.40413
Norwich City
Wolverhampton		15.9%
61.5%		22.6%
+528
-182
+555
-200
1
1		-1.52184-1.52717-1.48545
Burnley
Tottenham		15.0%
64.5%		20.5%
+933
-303
+850
-310
0
1		-0.30606-0.32673-0.43785
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.