English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion		39.0%
33.3%		27.7%
+1200
-445
+1100
-470
1
3		-0.22396-0.24049-1.10012
Leeds United
West Ham United		26.1%
48.5%		25.4%
+171
+168
+163
+160
1
3		-1.00553-0.99358-0.72340
Aston Villa
Liverpool		12.2%
70.3%		17.5%
+566
-200
+540
-205
1
1		-1.61319-1.60470-1.74097
Everton
Wolverhampton		35.2%
36.5%		28.3%
+133
+219
+130
+216
1
1		-1.31520-1.25748-1.26196
Crystal Palace
Fulham		39.5%
30.9%		29.6%
+228
+146
+206
+135
2
2		-1.20611-1.26915-1.21733
Manchester United
Bournemouth		74.7%
9.3%		16.0%
-235
+653
-235
+585
1
0		-0.37183-0.39356-0.29164
Brighton and Hove Albion
Newcastle United		34.8%
36.0%		29.2%
+339
-122
+311
-120
1
4		-0.61398-0.63486-1.02026
Liverpool
Leicester City		46.8%
27.2%		26.0%
-145
+388
-155
+380
3
0		-0.55769-0.54803-0.75886
Brighton and Hove Albion
Arsenal		17.9%
59.0%		23.0%
+344
-135
+335
-140
3
0		-1.51526-1.51236-1.71814
Manchester City
Everton		66.8%
14.0%		19.2%
-267
+765
-275
+750
3
0		-0.34772-0.35254-0.40350
Bournemouth
Crystal Palace		21.7%
52.4%		25.9%
+382
-126
+365
-133
0
2		-0.60607-0.60528-0.64640
Fulham
Southampton		19.1%
58.1%		22.8%
+164
+179
+156
+185
2
0		-0.98951-0.97252-1.65564
Wolverhampton
Manchester United		16.0%
63.0%		21.0%
+731
-252
+725
-272
0
2		-0.35542-0.35508-0.46137
Tottenham
Aston Villa		47.5%
27.9%		24.6%
+214
+132
+203
+130
1
2		-0.86116-0.87462-1.27705
Newcastle United
Leeds United		29.2%
44.0%		26.8%
-160
+425
-165
+411
2
2		-1.52303-1.52625-1.31658
Leicester City
Fulham		62.6%
15.9%		21.5%
+176
+174
+170
+165
3
5		-1.02664-1.01976-1.83942
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.93461 
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.94201 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.78720
0.14741
0.15481

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.