English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester United
West Ham United		56.7%
20.6%		22.7%
+106
+269
+100
+280
0
1		-1.32505-1.36098-1.57896
Arsenal
Newcastle United		54.6%
21.3%		24.1%
+206
+134
+195
+130
2
0		-1.13903-1.12701-0.60446
Leeds United
Manchester City		6.3%
81.2%		12.6%
+1685
-600
+1530
-685
1
2		-0.17801-0.18215-0.20880
Chelsea
Bournemouth		71.0%
11.5%		17.5%
+113
+259
+110
+254
3
1		-0.77716-0.77999-0.34259
Crystal Palace
Tottenham		16.4%
62.2%		21.4%
+342
-118
+309
-115
0
1		-0.63556-0.66738-0.47412
Aston Villa
Wolverhampton		30.4%
43.0%		26.6%
+142
+225
+134
+220
0
1		-1.19789-1.20424-0.84406
Manchester United
Brighton and Hove Albion		63.3%
15.6%		21.0%
+228
+121
+215
+119
0
1		-0.80995-0.81394-1.85604
West Ham United
Manchester City		8.3%
77.2%		14.5%
+1600
-555
+1450
-585
0
3		-0.19367-0.20427-0.25921
Fulham
Liverpool		6.7%
79.6%		13.7%
+915
-315
+900
-370
0
1		-0.29437-0.28662-0.22837
Chelsea
Arsenal		38.8%
34.2%		27.0%
+458
-158
+500
-175
1
3		-0.51164-0.48800-1.07236
Everton
Leicester City		25.5%
49.5%		24.9%
+303
+105
+280
+101
2
2		-1.27214-1.30637-1.38910
Tottenham
Liverpool		20.7%
56.6%		22.7%
+448
-181
+455
-188
3
4		-0.46968-0.46909-0.56966
Leeds United
Bournemouth		45.3%
27.8%		26.9%
+201
+148
+190
+145
1
4		-0.93326-0.93407-1.27945
Manchester City
Fulham		81.0%
6.1%		12.9%
-345
+1073
-368
+1060
2
1		-0.27740-0.25979-0.21104
Southampton
Newcastle United		43.1%
30.5%		26.3%
+1149
-385
+1050
-373
1
3		-0.25825-0.27753-1.18721
Aston Villa
Manchester United		14.5%
66.5%		19.0%
+385
-131
+365
-135
0
1		-0.57855-0.58718-0.40770
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.93461 
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.94201 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.78720
0.14741
0.15481

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.