English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Wolverhampton
Brighton and Hove Albion		40.0%
31.3%		28.8%
+475
-161
+450
-174
0
6		-0.50099-0.50491-1.16203
West Ham United
Crystal Palace		39.6%
32.2%		28.2%
+205
+159
+208
+155
3
4		-0.97310-0.96982-1.13314
Manchester United
Tottenham		42.8%
31.2%		26.0%
+145
+188
+140
+180
2
2		-1.35530-1.35147-1.34854
Bournemouth
Southampton		16.6%
62.2%		21.1%
+197
+157
+190
+155
1
0		-1.11700-1.09533-1.79456
Newcastle United
Everton		19.7%
57.4%		22.9%
-121
+377
-130
+375
4
1		-0.62592-0.61554-1.62496
Arsenal
Manchester City		12.8%
68.3%		18.8%
+420
-147
+425
-165
1
4		-0.54697-0.51845-0.38101
Liverpool
West Ham United		61.0%
17.5%		21.5%
+104
+270
-105
+265
2
1		-0.72336-0.71392-0.49477
Leicester City
Leeds United		53.5%
22.4%		24.1%
+207
+138
+190
+140
1
1		-1.31438-1.32754-1.42391
Fulham
Aston Villa		19.6%
57.5%		22.9%
+415
-133
+380
-140
0
1		-0.58121-0.58225-0.55342
Crystal Palace
Wolverhampton		24.2%
49.0%		26.8%
+273
+135
+251
+130
0
2		-0.87256-0.86938-0.71384
West Ham United
Bournemouth		53.6%
22.0%		24.4%
+157
+202
+150
+194
4
0		-0.96247-0.96302-0.62314
Tottenham
Newcastle United		57.6%
19.9%		22.5%
+308
-105
+325
-115
1
6		-0.69203-0.65518-1.61661
Everton
Crystal Palace		44.6%
28.2%		27.2%
+338
+100
+330
+100
0
0		-1.26054-1.25635-1.30195
Wolverhampton
Leicester City		22.7%
52.5%		24.8%
+215
+147
+205
+141
1
2		-0.92483-0.92445-0.64491
Leeds United
Fulham		41.0%
30.9%		28.1%
+213
+140
+198
+150
1
2		-0.89710-0.94305-1.17600
Southampton
Arsenal		23.1%
52.9%		24.0%
+1400
-500

3
3		-2.08192-1.42883
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.93461 
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.94201 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.78720
0.14741
0.15481

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.