English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Tottenham
Aston Villa		47.5%
27.9%		24.6%
+122
+248
+115
+235
4
0		-0.81297-0.81362-0.74503
Brighton and Hove Albion
Arsenal		17.9%
59.0%		23.0%
+535
-146
+477
-150
2
1		-1.86253-1.78195-1.71814
Chelsea
Southampton		51.8%
24.7%		23.6%
+100
+299
-107
+305
6
0		-0.71527-0.69341-0.65875
Leeds United
Watford		46.2%
26.8%		27.1%
+163
+185
+161
+180
3
0		-0.98366-0.99317-0.77295
Manchester United
Everton		51.5%
24.3%		24.3%
-107
+316
-117
+340
0
1		-1.44244-1.51417-1.41564
Wolverhampton
Newcastle United		44.0%
28.7%		27.3%
+345
+100
+325
+100
0
1		-0.71182-0.73253-1.24956
Everton
Burnley		47.1%
26.4%		26.5%
+218
+158
+210
+150
2
3		-0.96811-0.96045-1.33347
Arsenal
Crystal Palace		50.7%
23.4%		25.9%
+104
+323
-105
+330
0
3		-1.45852-1.49343-1.45389
Newcastle United
Tottenham		14.6%
66.0%		19.5%
+565
-177
+540
-185
1
5		-0.46694-0.48023-0.41612
Everton
West Ham United		36.9%
35.7%		27.4%
+395
-128
+390
-133
1
2		-0.59957-0.60697-1.03016
Leicester City
Manchester United		24.1%
51.4%		24.5%
+477
-171
+480
-185
1
1		-1.54066-1.52929-1.40784
Norwich City
Brighton and Hove Albion		21.6%
52.3%		26.1%
+683
-195
+665
-210
0
0		-1.47788-1.47661-1.34228
Manchester City
Burnley		76.9%
7.8%		15.2%
-468
+1738
-590
+2000
2
0		-0.20440-0.18780-0.26246
Southampton
Leeds United		39.3%
33.7%		27.0%
+188
+152
+182
+141
1
1		-1.31260-1.32716-1.30970
Aston Villa
Wolverhampton		30.4%
43.0%		26.6%
+165
+215
+160
+204
1
2		-1.16466-1.14737-0.84406
Watford
Liverpool		5.6%
81.9%		12.5%
+1840
-591
+2000
-660
0
2		-0.18052-0.16786-0.19927
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.