English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Liverpool
Chelsea		42.5%
31.2%		26.3%
+251
+122
+250
+110
0
0		-1.28790-1.29931-1.33617
Brighton and Hove Albion
Bournemouth		44.6%
27.7%		27.6%
-175
+480
-185
+490
2
0		-0.48740-0.47950-0.80721
Aston Villa
Leicester City		21.0%
56.3%		22.7%
+169
+175
+170
+165
2
1		-1.00961-1.03846-1.56122
Tottenham
Everton		40.7%
33.0%		26.3%
+111
+291
+113
+270
1
1		-1.25562-1.25709-1.33644
Manchester United
Newcastle United		67.2%
13.7%		19.1%
+215
+137
+211
+130
0
2		-0.87993-0.87409-1.99136
Southampton
West Ham United		32.3%
41.3%		26.4%
+419
-129
+375
-130
0
1		-0.59633-0.61554-0.88489
Aston Villa
Chelsea		17.9%
61.5%		20.6%
+508
-157
+500
-165
2
0		-1.82828-1.83898-1.72121
Leeds United
Arsenal		18.0%
59.7%		22.3%
+1009
-362
+1000
-370
1
4		-0.27111-0.28307-0.51664
Leicester City
Crystal Palace		53.1%
21.8%		25.0%
+225
+140
+215
+140
1
2		-0.89548-0.92576-1.52234
Liverpool
Manchester City		23.4%
52.0%		24.6%
+424
-150
+425
-160
1
4		-0.53396-0.52853-0.65427
Crystal Palace
Arsenal		17.6%
59.3%		23.1%
+1181
-370
+1100
-380
1
4		-0.26674-0.27965-0.52339
Everton
Chelsea		22.1%
54.9%		22.9%
+735
-208
+700
-210
2
2		-1.48589-1.45998-1.47233
Tottenham
Southampton		46.7%
28.5%		24.8%
-117
+369
-120
+360
3
3		-1.33075-1.33689-1.39542
Bournemouth
Aston Villa		17.1%
61.5%		21.4%
+404
-133
+385
-140
0
3		-0.58600-0.58709-0.48573
Leeds United
Wolverhampton		24.9%
49.2%		25.9%
+235
+140
+220
+140
4
2		-1.23066-1.20397-1.39022
Crystal Palace
Brighton and Hove Albion		31.1%
39.5%		29.4%
+835
-261
+775
-260
0
1		-0.34637-0.37570-0.92983
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.93461 
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.94201 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.78720
0.14741
0.15481

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.