English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester United
Manchester City		20.1%
57.1%		22.8%
+695
-225
+696
-250
1
4		-0.38256-0.37755-0.56103
Arsenal
Watford		64.6%
14.3%		21.1%
-184
+621
-200
+600
3
2		-0.45732-0.45471-0.43686
West Ham United
Liverpool		12.8%
68.8%		18.4%
+1106
-348
+1000
-410
0
1		-0.25701-0.26356-0.37365
Crystal Palace
Wolverhampton		24.2%
49.0%		26.8%
+253
+145
+240
+139
2
0		-1.27522-1.26862-1.41762
Brighton and Hove Albion
Newcastle United		34.8%
36.0%		29.2%
+200
+174
+192
+175
1
2		-1.02360-1.03987-1.02026
Chelsea
Burnley		60.8%
17.3%		21.9%
-183
+648
-205
+645
4
0		-0.45646-0.44354-0.49720
Southampton
Aston Villa		33.5%
40.3%		26.2%
+234
+126
+220
+125
0
4		-0.83635-0.85668-0.90887
Leeds United
Leicester City		16.7%
62.1%		21.2%
+255
+105
+317
-128
0
1		-0.74665-0.62144-0.47573
Leicester City
Burnley		55.6%
20.2%		24.2%
+162
+195
+145
+190
2
0		-0.98305-0.94631-0.58683
Wolverhampton
West Ham United		33.3%
38.8%		27.9%
+354
-104
+335
+105
0
1		-0.69429-0.73480-0.94776
Manchester City
Everton		66.8%
14.0%		19.2%
-354
+1100
-390
+1100
1
0		-0.26557-0.26082-0.40350
Watford
Manchester United		6.5%
80.0%		13.5%
+775
-244
+750
-267
0
0		-1.64553-1.66168-2.00315
Burnley
Crystal Palace		29.5%
41.1%		29.3%
+394
-105
+370
-114
1
1		-1.21359-1.25197-1.22700
Aston Villa
Brighton and Hove Albion		38.4%
34.0%		27.6%
+261
+127
+250
+124
2
0		-1.29700-1.28735-0.95667
Tottenham
Leeds United		54.0%
22.5%		23.4%
+102
+280
-107
+310
4
0		-0.71760-0.67376-0.61598
Norwich City
Southampton		16.8%
61.3%		21.8%
+590
-192
+575
-210
0
2		-0.43754-0.42928-0.48893
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.