English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Wolverhampton
Newcastle United		44.0%
28.7%		27.3%
+505
-156
+495
-160
1
2		-0.52401-0.53108-1.24956
Southampton
Manchester United		14.9%
65.9%		19.2%
+975
-365
+1000
-370
0
0		-1.88335-1.86323-1.64943
Aston Villa
West Ham United		31.8%
42.1%		26.1%
+233
+138
+225
+130
1
1		-1.21288-1.22758-1.34415
Arsenal
Fulham		60.1%
17.2%		22.7%
-233
+685
-230
+680
3
0		-0.39192-0.39869-0.50931
Manchester City
Crystal Palace		75.3%
8.6%		16.1%
-284
+907
-290
+850
1
0		-0.33202-0.34021-0.28317
Chelsea
Leicester City		36.6%
36.2%		27.2%
-105
+320
-114
+325
3
1		-0.68868-0.67017-1.00441
Brighton and Hove Albion
Leeds United		31.9%
39.9%		28.2%
-113
+335
-120
+329
2
2		-1.36995-1.37389-1.26553
Liverpool
Bournemouth		77.3%
7.9%		14.9%
-238
+650
-245
+635
0
1		-2.04353-2.03073-2.54110
Manchester United
Liverpool		28.6%
45.3%		26.1%
+197
+145
+185
+140
0
7		-0.91474-0.92352-0.79286
Leicester City
Southampton		46.4%
28.2%		25.4%
+175
+190
+155
+175
0
1		-1.06557-1.06031-1.26411
West Ham United
Brighton and Hove Albion		39.2%
32.7%		28.1%
+445
-143
+410
-145
0
4		-0.55194-0.57107-1.11694
Bournemouth
Arsenal		10.9%
71.2%		17.9%
+1353
-428
+1300
-435
2
3		-0.23282-0.24210-0.33907
Leeds United
Chelsea		14.0%
67.0%		18.9%
+542
-167
+495
-165
0
1		-0.49235-0.51071-0.39987
Tottenham
Wolverhampton		43.9%
29.6%		26.5%
+139
+234
+135
+220
0
1		-1.22751-1.20341-1.21686
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa		26.4%
47.6%		26.1%
+278
+119
+270
+118
0
1		-0.80339-0.81083-0.74280
Newcastle United
Manchester City		5.5%
82.8%		11.7%
+590
-193
+550
-180
0
2		-0.44253-0.46502-0.18843
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.93461 
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.94201 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.78720
0.14741
0.15481

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.