English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Wolverhampton
Liverpool		13.5%
66.8%		19.7%
+564
-185
+553
-195
0
2		-0.45240-0.44970-0.40422
Everton
Arsenal		27.2%
46.9%		25.9%
+1005
-288
+979
-320
0
4		-0.31585-0.31601-0.75722
Chelsea
Tottenham		37.1%
36.4%		26.5%
+152
+200
+155
+185
0
2		-1.13128-1.09679-1.01041
Liverpool
Crystal Palace		67.1%
13.0%		19.9%
-142
+432
-145
+425
0
0		-1.44787-1.40474-1.61515
Manchester City
Bournemouth		83.1%
5.2%		11.6%
-265
+1015
-310
+860
4
1		-0.30703-0.31769-0.18494
Arsenal
Leicester City		30.5%
42.6%		26.9%
-169
+505
-170
+460
1
0		-0.48542-0.51118-1.18636
Southampton
Leeds United		39.3%
33.7%		27.0%
+300
-103
+302
-105
0
1		-0.70225-0.71158-1.08785
Aston Villa
Everton		27.6%
47.4%		25.0%
+202
+157
+191
+160
2
0		-1.13840-1.10624-1.28735
Wolverhampton
Fulham		49.8%
23.7%		26.4%
+204
+164
+200
+152
1
1		-1.18319-1.20274-1.33112
West Ham United
Tottenham		21.9%
55.1%		22.9%
+370
-114
+340
-120
0
2		-0.64903-0.65036-0.59553
Leicester City
Manchester United		24.1%
51.4%		24.5%
+501
-173
+470
-180
0
3		-0.47351-0.48639-0.66614
Liverpool
Newcastle United		70.6%
11.5%		17.9%
+186
+159
+188
+150
2
0		-1.07125-1.09020-0.34832
Fulham
Brighton and Hove Albion		24.1%
49.1%		26.7%
+520
-175
+515
-185
1
0		-1.84421-1.86240-1.42093
Southampton
Chelsea		18.4%
60.8%		20.8%
+700
-215
+700
-232
1
0		-2.09956-2.12678-1.69527
Leeds United
Everton		22.3%
53.8%		23.8%
+183
+179
+185
+170
0
1		-1.04535-1.02179-0.61934
Bournemouth
Wolverhampton		15.7%
62.4%		21.9%
+386
-119
+375
-120
1
0		-1.60028-1.59974-1.85342
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.93461 
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.94201 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.78720
0.14741
0.15481

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.