English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Burnley
Arsenal		22.2%
55.5%		22.3%
+1000
-315
+1050
-330
0
0		-1.72244-1.70987-1.50171
Brighton and Hove Albion
Leicester City		22.7%
55.6%		21.7%
+175
+165
+180
+160
1
1		-1.26872-1.25903-1.52781
Liverpool
Crystal Palace		60.2%
19.4%		20.4%
-170
+523
-180
+490
3
1		-0.49047-0.49104-0.50750
Manchester City
Southampton		64.2%
18.6%		17.2%
-350
+1061
-360
+1025
1
1		-1.82183-1.77160-1.76055
West Ham United
Manchester United		22.0%
58.4%		19.6%
+250
+110
+240
+115
0
1		-0.77646-0.81340-0.53758
Newcastle United
Leeds United		32.2%
42.6%		25.3%
+330
-120
+305
-115
1
0		-1.49246-1.43004-1.13442
Aston Villa
Everton		31.3%
45.0%		23.7%
+178
+165
+165
+180
1
0		-1.05742-1.00193-1.16034
Norwich City
Watford		34.3%
37.8%		28.0%
+285
+105
+276
+100
3
0		-1.37081-1.37097-1.07014
Tottenham
Leicester City		34.8%
40.6%		24.6%
+135
+245
+130
+230
3
2		-0.85149-0.86185-1.05506
Chelsea
Brighton and Hove Albion		53.0%
25.0%		22.0%
-155
+545
-175
+535
1
1		-1.39910-1.41964-1.51249
Leeds United
West Ham United		30.1%
45.8%		24.1%
+400
-145
+390
-150
3
2		-1.63948-1.63609-1.20121
Manchester United
Aston Villa		52.9%
25.8%		21.3%
+185
+155
+185
+150
2
2		-1.29748-1.28870-1.54604
Southampton
Wolverhampton		33.5%
41.4%		25.1%
+230
+145
+230
+145
1
3		-0.92930-0.94287-0.88211
Everton
Norwich City		52.6%
24.5%		23.0%
+120
+250
+125
+240
1
2		-1.28659-1.26539-1.40838
Watford
Newcastle United		27.5%
47.5%		25.1%
+340
-120
+340
-115
1
1		-1.37999-1.33022-1.38310
Chelsea
Manchester City		23.1%
56.9%		20.0%
+448
-160
+451
-140
0
1		-0.51814-0.54768-0.56445
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.