English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Leeds United
Leicester City		16.7%
62.1%		21.2%
+215
+135
+215
+124
0
2		-0.87421-0.85104-0.47573
Aston Villa
Fulham		48.6%
25.9%		25.6%
+146
+203
+136
+202
0
3		-1.12819-1.14501-1.35270
Tottenham
Manchester United		24.1%
52.0%		23.8%
+212
+140
+205
+135
0
2		-0.89416-0.89279-0.65314
West Ham United
Liverpool		12.8%
68.8%		18.4%
+670
-231
+600
-240
0
1		-0.38139-0.39782-0.37365
Everton
Newcastle United		48.5%
26.0%		25.5%
+466
-147
+440
-155
0
1		-0.54055-0.54300-1.34650
Southampton
Bournemouth		53.6%
22.4%		24.0%
+188
+172
+180
+175
1
0		-1.07919-1.05771-0.62373
Wolverhampton
Crystal Palace		40.3%
30.8%		28.9%
+293
+114
+300
+105
1
2		-0.77655-0.75965-1.17866
Manchester City
Liverpool		42.9%
30.2%		26.8%
-114
+284
-115
+275
0
1		-1.37294-1.36063-1.19673
West Ham United
Southampton		33.1%
40.4%		26.4%
+157
+204
+145
+195
1
1		-1.21905-1.25358-1.33124
Arsenal
Leeds United		50.9%
24.0%		25.1%
-148
+427
-160
+450
1
0		-0.53512-0.50672-0.67574
Chelsea
Aston Villa		52.5%
24.1%		23.4%
+107
+307
+100
+300
2
0		-0.74034-0.72824-0.64447
Newcastle United
Manchester United		9.8%
74.0%		16.1%
+262
+112
+245
+110
0
0		-1.32637-1.30328-1.82542
Everton
Tottenham		25.7%
49.9%		24.3%
+647
-210
+625
-220
0
2		-0.41106-0.41131-0.69433
Crystal Palace
Leicester City		16.3%
61.6%		22.1%
+202
+146
+200
+139
0
0		-1.28609-1.26858-1.50860
Manchester United
Everton		51.5%
24.3%		24.3%
+113
+262
+110
+250
2
1		-0.77490-0.79239-0.66448
Liverpool
Arsenal		49.0%
25.4%		25.6%
+174
+156
+160
+160
2
3		-0.95521-0.99147-1.36944
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.