English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Everton
Crystal Palace		43.0%
31.4%		25.6%
+250
+130
+260
+125
1
3		-0.86729-0.85477-1.15903
Newcastle United
Leicester City		21.2%
58.7%		20.1%
+380
-140
+375
-140
0
4		-0.57111-0.58805-0.53232
West Ham United
Burnley		41.2%
32.8%		26.0%
+118
+250
+125
+240
0
0		-1.28248-1.25593-1.34850
Manchester United
Norwich City		66.3%
16.0%		17.6%
-230
+625
-245
+650
1
0		-0.39531-0.38484-0.41087
Aston Villa
Liverpool		19.4%
62.9%		17.7%
+1109
-400
+1200
-420
0
1		-0.25527-0.25131-0.46374
Leeds United
Chelsea		21.1%
60.1%		18.8%
+1295
-420
+1150
-430
2
3		-0.24072-0.25327-0.50958
Southampton
Arsenal		28.1%
48.9%		23.0%
+360
-135
+375
-130
0
3		-0.58944-0.59597-0.71513
Wolverhampton
Manchester City		15.4%
67.8%		16.8%
+1700
-575
+1840
-650
0
1		-0.18856-0.18926-0.38828
Arsenal
Everton		38.6%
36.0%		25.4%
+120
+260
+124
+250
1
2		-1.29485-1.27454-1.02065
Leicester City
Aston Villa		44.8%
31.3%		23.9%
+235
+125
+245
+120
1
2		-0.84735-0.83048-1.16098
Norwich City
Tottenham		16.9%
65.6%		17.5%
+674
-215
+650
-215
0
3		-0.40396-0.42417-0.42185
Crystal Palace
Manchester United		17.8%
63.5%		18.7%
+565
-190
+550
-190
0
1		-0.45268-0.46622-0.45490
Manchester City
Watford		76.0%
10.0%		13.9%
-475
+1254
-500
+1300
3
1		-0.22379-0.22127-0.27407
Liverpool
Wolverhampton		53.3%
24.2%		22.5%
-275
+828
-270
+800
1
0		-0.33949-0.34592-0.62841
Brighton and Hove Albion
Southampton		30.1%
45.4%		24.5%
+198
+165
+186
+170
1
1		-1.18172-1.18420-1.40842
Burnley
Newcastle United		34.3%
38.9%		26.8%
+205
+143
+199
+140
0
1		-0.92085-0.91807-0.94307
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.