English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Fulham
West Ham United		18.8%
58.0%		23.1%
+498
-141
+440
-155
1
3		-0.53222-0.53998-0.54393
Leeds United
Crystal Palace		32.4%
38.9%		28.7%
+280
+109
+255
+105
1
2		-0.75264-0.76776-0.94415
Tottenham
Brighton and Hove Albion		53.6%
22.4%		24.0%
+196
+166
+175
+160
1
0		-1.08548-1.05228-0.62439
Wolverhampton
Chelsea		19.5%
57.9%		22.5%
+730
-192
+715
-217
0
3		-0.41045-0.41047-0.54569
Leicester City
Bournemouth		66.3%
13.8%		20.0%
+125
+250
+120
+230
1
2		-1.26298-1.23629-1.98282
Southampton
Manchester City		8.1%
77.8%		14.1%
+2261
-800
+1950
-900
0
4		-0.13969-0.14844-0.25114
Aston Villa
Leeds United		38.7%
34.4%		27.0%
+206
+145
+205
+135
0
0		-1.27934-1.29113-1.31085
Manchester United
Manchester City		20.1%
57.1%		22.8%
+559
-217
+625
-250
3
6		-0.39375-0.36993-0.56103
Wolverhampton
West Ham United		33.3%
38.8%		27.9%
+299
+108
+300
+100
0
2		-0.75424-0.73798-0.94776
Brighton and Hove Albion
Liverpool		9.6%
73.7%		16.7%
+586
-202
+578
-225
3
3		-1.60779-1.61566-1.78779
Newcastle United
Fulham		37.2%
33.7%		29.1%
+154
+194
+147
+190
4
1		-0.95558-0.94299-0.98964
Everton
Southampton		37.6%
35.6%		26.8%
+230
+139
+230
+130
2
1		-1.21632-1.23395-0.97904
Chelsea
Crystal Palace		58.4%
18.8%		22.8%
-129
+390
-135
+385
2
1		-0.59744-0.60398-0.53804
Tottenham
Arsenal		34.4%
38.5%		27.0%
+284
+101
+280
-105
1
3		-0.71902-0.70885-0.95358
West Ham United
Everton		28.4%
45.8%		25.8%
+160
+197
+148
+190
0
1		-1.09967-1.11021-0.78076
Leicester City
Tottenham		32.8%
40.7%		26.5%
+545
-184
+550
-210
2
6		-0.45415-0.43697-0.89911
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.