English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bournemouth
Newcastle United		24.0%
50.2%		25.8%
+690
-233
+675
-240
1
1		-1.64657-1.59583-1.35460
Manchester City
Wolverhampton		69.0%
12.3%		18.7%
-282
+850
-315
+825
3
0		-0.32076-0.32256-0.37122
Southampton
Aston Villa		33.5%
40.3%		26.2%
+272
+112
+260
+110
0
1		-0.76955-0.77699-0.90887
Arsenal
Manchester United		22.5%
53.5%		24.0%
+170
+174
+170
+170
1
3		-1.02485-1.03787-0.62489
Leicester City
Brighton and Hove Albion		53.0%
22.2%		24.7%
+338
-105
+345
-120
2
5		-0.67976-0.65670-1.50377
Manchester City
Aston Villa		72.3%
11.0%		16.7%
-310
+933
-320
+800
1
1		-1.81113-1.78189-1.78898
West Ham United
Chelsea		18.6%
60.1%		21.3%


1
2		-0.50951
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United		34.2%
36.4%		29.4%
+290
+112
+290
+102
0
0		-1.25614-1.27888-1.22571
Southampton
Wolverhampton		30.9%
42.1%		26.9%
+262
+119
+240
+115
0
1		-0.80392-0.81581-0.86410
Fulham
Tottenham		11.5%
70.7%		17.7%
+551
-184
+525
-200
1
2		-0.45275-0.45086-0.34657
West Ham United
Chelsea		18.6%
60.1%		21.3%
+502
-165
+480
-175
1
2		-0.49225-0.49888-0.50951
Liverpool
Everton		55.9%
20.8%		23.2%
-255
+675
-280
+700
0
0		-1.71081-1.74749-1.46003
Manchester United
Leicester City		42.2%
31.1%		26.6%
+122
+226
+124
+220
1
0		-0.81767-0.84253-0.86171
Newcastle United
Liverpool		8.3%
76.7%		15.0%
+988
-360
+950
-360
1
2		-0.27449-0.28868-0.26497
Tottenham
West Ham United		45.9%
28.7%		25.4%
+128
+232
+120
+240
1
1		-1.29836-1.29273-1.37227
Aston Villa
Arsenal		22.6%
53.8%		23.6%
+557
-186
+535
-195
1
2		-0.45000-0.45872-0.62003
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.