English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace		39.0%
35.2%		25.8%
+235
+135
+235
+128
2
1		-1.23478-1.25278-0.94117
Newcastle United
Arsenal		22.2%
56.8%		21.0%
+560
-200
+530
-198
0
2		-0.43595-0.44857-0.56563
Leeds United
Tottenham		23.3%
56.4%		20.3%
+480
-160
+500
-165
1
2		-0.51330-0.51234-0.57215
Everton
Manchester City		17.1%
66.3%		16.7%
+1624
-500
+1500
-525
0
3		-0.20845-0.21872-0.41170
Arsenal
Liverpool		25.0%
52.6%		22.4%
+519
-185
+530
-195
0
4		-0.45982-0.44381-0.64183
West Ham United
Wolverhampton		33.6%
40.9%		25.5%
+145
+210
+140
+212
0
1		-1.16283-1.18633-0.89446
Manchester United
Watford		67.4%
15.5%		17.1%
-195
+572
-200
+540
1
4		-1.93192-1.89812-1.86698
Southampton
Norwich City		48.7%
27.3%		23.9%
+115
+256
+110
+250
1
2		-1.28957-1.30324-1.29693
Crystal Palace
Burnley		34.9%
37.3%		27.8%
+170
+185
+165
+185
3
3		-1.20718-1.19211-1.27938
Brighton and Hove Albion
Aston Villa		30.6%
44.9%		24.5%
+204
+150
+205
+148
0
2		-0.94338-0.94181-0.80042
Chelsea
Leicester City		37.8%
37.5%		24.7%
-130
+390
-135
+385
3
0		-0.60589-0.59988-0.97310
Liverpool
West Ham United		55.0%
23.8%		21.2%
-135
+360
-145
+340
2
3		-1.54759-1.53151-1.43443
Leicester City
Leeds United		49.3%
27.4%		23.3%
+170
+165
+164
+165
1
1		-1.30004-1.30409-1.45689
Tottenham
Everton		40.5%
35.1%		24.4%
+130
+240
+126
+230
0
0		-1.23598-1.24133-1.41087
Watford
Arsenal		16.9%
64.3%		18.9%
+674
-225
+650
-234
0
1		-0.39298-0.39312-0.44205
Newcastle United
Brighton and Hove Albion		31.9%
42.1%		26.0%
+495
-170
+525
-175
1
1		-1.47024-1.44486-1.34727
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.